Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't most polls have Brown up by double digits?

[OneJ]

Don't most polls have Brown up by double digits?

Yep and over or close to 50 as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls also said Brown would win by double digits with Josh Mandel

[BuckeyeNut]

The polls also said Brown would win by double digits with Josh Mandel

Not after May of the election year...

[Ebsy]

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:



The numbers on the right are Absentee returns from the 2016 General Election in the 4 counties where I could find them for the same period that absentee balloting has been open as of yesterday.

Edit: Fixed cropping.

[Zaybay]

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:

Dems usually vote early, so this is expected, but that margin, woah. I would like some more time, but dang, those are some good numbers.

[Ebsy]

Uh, I will try to fix the chart, but the right side is a direct comparison to absentee vote numbers in 2016 (to the same day in the cycle) for the four counties where I could find the data.

[Ebsy]

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:



The numbers on the right are Absentee returns from the 2016 General Election in the 4 counties where I could find them for the same period that absentee balloting has been open as of yesterday.

Edit: Fixed cropping.

Chart is fixed!

[Doimper]

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:



The numbers on the right are Absentee returns from the 2016 General Election in the 4 counties where I could find them for the same period that absentee balloting has been open as of yesterday.

Edit: Fixed cropping.

Wow, look at all that disarray.

[BuckeyeNut]

This where O'Connor has to be at a minimum to win. It should be noted, that in 2012, Obama lost the day-of vote in Ohio, but blew out early-vote roughly 60-40.

[Zaybay]

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:



The numbers on the right are Absentee returns from the 2016 General Election in the 4 counties where I could find them for the same period that absentee balloting has been open as of yesterday.

Edit: Fixed cropping.

Wait, who is siphoning almost 20% of the vote? The numbers dont add up.

I swear to god if its the Green candidate.....

[GeorgiaModerate]

I managed to track down the Absentee Vote returns for 6 of the 7 counties in OH-12, current as of close of business yesterday. Pretty stark numbers here:



The numbers on the right are Absentee returns from the 2016 General Election in the 4 counties where I could find them for the same period that absentee balloting has been open as of yesterday.

Edit: Fixed cropping.

Wait, who is siphoning almost 20% of the vote? The numbers dont add up.

I swear to god if its the Green candidate.....

The percentages for the four-county '18 totals are goofy.  513/1566 is more like 33%, not 21%, and 96/1566 is about 6%, not 3.4%.

[Ebsy]

Yeah I definitely messed up the percentages there, not sure how it happened. Btw, here is the cumulatitve take including today's update:

[Ebsy]

And here is a histogram of the cumulative early votes so far across the 6 counties:

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's not a histogram but thanks for the data anyway.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What is this foolish memery?! *frantic rees*.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a vote of appreciation for Ebsy for providing these ballot total updates.

[KingSweden]

Here's a vote of appreciation for Ebsy for providing these ballot total updates.

x KS

[Gass3268]

Saw some tweets online here that the early vote behavior for the special has been different that past cycles as the Democratic lead has grown everyday of the early vote period, which is now at the half way point. Will it last? Who knows, but something different is happening right now.

[Ebsy]

Thanks everyone! Here's today's updated numbers:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a must win, although it maybe difficult with Trump approvals in Ohio to win

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Thanks everyone! Here's today's updated numbers:

Not high enough for the Dems. They’re gonna need to hit 75, because E-Day is devastating for them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Thanks everyone! Here's today's updated numbers:

Not high enough for the Dems. They’re gonna need to hit 75, because E-Day is devastating for them.

Most analysts say the number O'Connor needs is 60%...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is a must win, although it maybe difficult with Trump approvals in Ohio to win

His approvals in Ohio are not great.

[Hindsight was 2020]

God to see his % up