France 2012: the official thread

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Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see.

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue.

It seems the first results will be available at 21:00, and "consolidated results" (I don't know what does it mean exactly) at 23:00. We will have two declarations about turnout level at 12:00 and 19:00. No exit polls, AFAIK.

OK, guys, here is the graph: all the polls for the French PS primary since DSK affair began !

Nice - and useful - graph for sure! You can find some others here.

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The first results are here: http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

Of course the PS still sucks and is not able to aggregate the results, so you must have a look at each departments...

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Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".

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Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".

Tautology.

Ok, I should have said "exceptionnally".

Nothing changed with 661,000 ballots in.

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I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).

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I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).

Well, I realize this is not precisely the argument of the winner of the night :-).

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Results website gone crazy... Now indicates 0 votes...

FRAUD!

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I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

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I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

Well at least she's not a useless, do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign.

Since I'm not a socialist at all, it sounds great to me :-).

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Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.

A journalist said on I-télé that Aubry and Montebourg didn't talk to each other since 6 months, so who knows what will happen...

Anyone knows why there is twice more invalid votes in the "consolidated results" columns than in the first one?

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So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

It's not really useful since he is by far the most unpopular incumbent President looking for reelection.

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Mathieu, if you read us, is there any poll in sight before Sunday ?

I'd be surprised if Harris doesn't make one. Le Parisien is always hungry to have a "breaking" poll .

IFOP ? Well, France-Soir hasn't money any longer , le JDD is published on Sunday and LCP may be reluctant.

Don't worry, at last one Harris poll (for LCP !) will be released today. Basically the same results as Opinionway, you can find them here but the full data is still not on their website. Concerning IFOP I have no clue...

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***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

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***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Or she hates Hollande more than Aubry, and is cleverer than you think.

Occam's razor applies perfectly here, IMO.

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I admit I feel a bit sorry for Segogo:

Melle (79)
Hollande 43%
Royal 32%
Montebourg 13%
Aubry 11%

Haha.

The comparison between Royal's and Baylet's strongholds is indeed cruel for the first one...

Baylet 59%
Hollande 17%
Aubry 10%
Montebourg 7%
Royal 4%
Valls 2%

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Very nice maps!

If I can suggest something to Fab (only if his maps are not already done, of course), it would be to choose a discretization by quintiles or quartiles, in order to see better where are the strongholds of the little candidates (Royal, Valls).

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Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird...

You can find them here too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...

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78% for Hollande in Melle (Ségolène Royal hometown) according to I-Télé.

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On 279,542 votes, 56,85% for Hollande.

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Does Nadine Morono make money or something when she says retarded things? Is she like in a contest with Cope and Jacob for "say the most inane things"?

She reminds me... well... a beheaded chicken that is still clucking.

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In CSA (I'll publish it tomorrow), Hollande is already at 35%.

And let me assure you he will be higher in tomorrow morning's poll, it gonna be really big

What I like in this CSA poll is the analysis: they dare to say Hollande is at a fair level among the working-class voters when he polls at 28%, 7 points under his polling total. Well, ok, he is first among this group, but he is tied with Marine... Clearly, Terra Nova was right earlier this year, saying the working class is lost for the left in France, too.

BTW, I was just noticing that many pollster now have a sample of 1000 respondents from which they extract about 850/900 registered voters. I'm not sure, but IIRC, in 2007, the standard was a 1000 RV's sample, right?

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Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...

Hey, if you have something like €15,000 to spend, I'm pretty sure some polling compagnies would warmly welcome you
Seriously, you should blame those who paid for these polls rather than the pollsters themselves.

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anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)

Well, of course I have no clue about what will be the outcome of the 2012 election, but I really think it is not because since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, the six left-wing vs. right-wing presidential elections were rather close that it will be again the case next year. I don't understand why we would be that exceptional in that regard.

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IMO the tracker should be based not on the publishing dates but on the field dates, the only ones which make sense if you're tracking voting intentions. Maybe you can use all the polls whose fields are executed from Monday to Monday (or any other seven days round of course), and publish the tracker only two or three days after, in order to wait for the publication of all of them?

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your work. You shall overcome!

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We are Friday and still no new poll
I was convinced they'd go back to "work" as soon as the 2nd of January...
They seemed hungry enough to be interested in this "good school-boy" start from Hollande (he is really lucky to have Sarkozy against him...); so, why can't they "create" the event by polling NOW ?

French medias are really big, big sh***

Don't worry Fab, you will have a bunch of new polls next week, at least IFOP, BVA, CSA, OpinionWay, and maybe one of the two best IMO, IPSOS and TNS Sofres.