The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[pepper11]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

[pepper11]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

There was one, but I don't know if it is still up and I can't find it.

This article, from 5 days ago, indicates that it is running better in OH:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

Thanks.

36 D, 29 R  through last  Wednesday!!??

How are these polls getting a 30 point Dem margin on early voting?

[pepper11]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

There was one, but I don't know if it is still up and I can't find it.

This article, from 5 days ago, indicates that it is running better in OH:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

Thanks.

36 D, 29 R  through last  Wednesday!!??

How are these polls getting a 30 point Dem margin on early voting?

The good ones are not.    Registration is not "firm" in OH, so the statistics are not as firm as the should be. 

Somethings gotta give. Secretary of state says its a 7 point margin, the polls say its a 30 point margin.

PPP:

Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he's already winning the election there. 21% of voters in the state say they've already voted, and they report having supported Obama 66/34

Marist:

Among voters who indicate they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads Romney, 63% to 37%

Time:

Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

[pepper11]

Once again, for the seventeenth time, Ohio does not have party registration, those party figures are meaningless, anyone who is treating them seriously (including that CNN reporter) is laughably uninformed about this sort of stuff.

The RNC sent out this memo.

Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points. Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans.


Obviously a bias source. But I doubt they are simply making numbers up. How are they able to compare if there is no party registration?

[pepper11]

Good info. Thank you.

[pepper11]

Romney, Karl Rove, Mr and Mr Koch, Wake up and get out of Nevada. Wisconsin and Iowa would be good places to use your funds.

[pepper11]

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

Iowa

R: 159866
D: 219778
I: 117485

R: 32.2%
D: 44.2%
I: 23.6%

Compared to O8?

[pepper11]

Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

[pepper11]

Cuyahoga county, OH voting down 6k vs 2012, not looking good for your turnout models.....

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

That document says its down 21K

[pepper11]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.3%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.4%

Iowa today:

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%
   

The final gap in 2008 was 18 points.  It is now 10.8, and consistently declining.

But Marist says Obama is winning early voters by 30 points. Trust  the polls, not the votes.

[pepper11]

VA EARLY VOTE: Telling that the two extremes here are Buchanan (103.3%), a Kerry/McCain coal zone, & Portsmouth (33.8%), Af-Am city.



Glorious news!

SURGING!

[pepper11]

Very good simplified analysis of who is winning early voting. Its from the Atlantic, who has had strong learn to the left for the last 5 years. But it seems to be a very fair analysis.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

NC- Romney
FL - Romney
CO - Romney

IA - Obama
NV - Obama

OH- possibly Obama (but she really bases this on polling, not voting)

VA, WI, MI, PA, NH - draw or inconclusive or doesn't matter b/c there is minimal early vote.

[pepper11]

Question: Regarding Ohio party ID. If you voted D in 08 and DID NOT vote in 2010 primary, are you considered Independent or Dem.