Emmons County, North Dakota

[Rob]

This has been bugging me for a while. After voting 77 percent for Ike in 1956, Emmons voted 53.5 percent for Kennedy. Then, four years later, it gave Goldwater 53 percent of the vote. This is the only non-southern county in the nation to switch from JFK to Goldwater. Why?

[Alcon]

Very good question.

Looks like a standard county in southern North Dakota to me. Here's the official site of the county seat, Linton:

http://lintonnd.org/

I'm trying to find mention of its agriculture, but everything else seems standard and unlikely to result in such weird voting patterns. Oh well.

* EDIT - This page could be especially helpful, but it isn't loading for me at the moment. *

[minionofmidas]

Nothing on elections there.
I would suppose they might have voted for Kennedy because they were Catholics. The question then would be why were they Republicans - perhaps they were German Catholics from Wisconsin?

[Alcon]

Nothing on elections there.
I would suppose they might have voted for Kennedy because they were Catholics. The question then would be why were they Republicans - perhaps they were German Catholics from Wisconsin?

You may be on to something here. The Census reports that the county is heavily German. This map reports that, unlike surrounding counties, Emmons is majority Catholic.

[minionofmidas]

Wow. I'm flattered.

[Rob]

Nothing on elections there.
I would suppose they might have voted for Kennedy because they were Catholics. The question then would be why were they Republicans - perhaps they were German Catholics from Wisconsin?

Probably. BTW, Emmons voted for LaFollette in 1924, Smith in 1928, FDR in both 1932 and 1936, and (surprisingly) Jimmy Carter in 1976. Other than that, it's gone constantly Republican with the exception of 1912 (when the GOP split resulted in a Wilson victory).

[minionofmidas]

Back in the Rep fold in 16? Interesting.

[Rob]

Back in the Rep fold in 16? Interesting.

Yeah- over 63 percent for Hughes. Also, Wilson's share of the vote actually fell from 38.9 percent to 35.3 percent.

[Rob]

BTW, that furthers the theory that the voting patterns are due to German Catholics. In 1916, German-Americans voted for Hughes over anger at Wilson's "anti-German" foreign policy. There were some crazy swings in German Catholic counties in Wisconsin that year:

Jefferson County 1912- 62.4 percent Democratic
Jefferson County 1916- 47.7 percent Democratic

Ozaukee County 1912- 63.3 percent Democratic
Ozaukee County 1916- 48.4 percent Democratic

Dodge County 1912- 60.0 percent Democratic
Dodge County 1916- 46.8 percent Democratic

There were also many smaller anti-Wilson swings.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even though I've live in two counties that neighbor it, I've never been there since before my age was double digits, although it's because there's really no reason to go there. I noticed that much earlier though, and came to the same conclusion as above, because the area is predominately made up of German Catholics as basically everwhere in that area is except Bismarck/Mandan and of course the Indian Reservation. Further evidence of this lies in the 1928 results.

Today that part of ND is so conservative I prefer to simply not go there at all. In 2000 one of the precincts there voted for Bush over 90%, he got 138 votes to Gore's 7. Buchanan made a scarily high showing in many other precincts and in neighboring Kidder county actually has a precint where Buchanan outpolled Gore. I can't avoid Kidder when I go home, but luckily my experience on it consists only of miles of empty road on I-94.

[Rob]

This is the only non-southern county in the nation to switch from JFK to Goldwater.

I was wrong- it was one of two. Custer County, Idaho voted solidly for JFK, giving him 56 percent of the vote. Four years later, Goldwater narrowly carried it, by a margin of only 0.4 percent. Why?

[jimrtex]

This is the only non-southern county in the nation to switch from JFK to Goldwater.

I was wrong- it was one of two. Custer County, Idaho voted solidly for JFK, giving him 56 percent of the vote. Four years later, Goldwater narrowly carried it, by a margin of only 0.4 percent. Why?

There was a population dip between 1950 and 1960.  So maybe there was a shutdown of a mine (it is a pretty mountainous area).  My atlas shows Cobalt, Molydenum, Lead, and Tungsten.  Molydenum production has usually been limited to just a few mines in the country.

[Rob]

That's interesting. It may well be the reason. Interestingly, there were several counties in southern Idaho where Goldwater ran better than Nixon, a sign of how far to the right local politics were shifting.

[RBH]

This is the only non-southern county in the nation to switch from JFK to Goldwater.

I was wrong- it was one of two. Custer County, Idaho voted solidly for JFK, giving him 56 percent of the vote. Four years later, Goldwater narrowly carried it, by a margin of only 0.4 percent. Why?

If you consider Missouri non-southern, then...

Osage County, 1960: 52-48 Kennedy (2900-2678)
Osage County, 1964: 51-49 Goldwater (2712-2608)

Missouri, 1960: 50.3/49.7 Kennedy
Missouri, 1964: 64/36 Johnson

Osage County is also German Catholic.

Osage County, 1900-2004

1900-1908: Republican
1912: Democratic
1916-1924: Republican
1928-1936: Democratic
1940-1944: Republican
1948: Democratic
1952-1956: Republican
1960: Democratic
1964-2004: Republican

[Colin]

Even though I've live in two counties that neighbor it, I've never been there since before my age was double digits, although it's because there's really no reason to go there. I noticed that much earlier though, and came to the same conclusion as above, because the area is predominately made up of German Catholics as basically everwhere in that area is except Bismarck/Mandan and of course the Indian Reservation. Further evidence of this lies in the 1928 results.

Today that part of ND is so conservative I prefer to simply not go there at all. In 2000 one of the precincts there voted for Bush over 90%, he got 138 votes to Gore's 7. Buchanan made a scarily high showing in many other precincts and in neighboring Kidder county actually has a precint where Buchanan outpolled Gore. I can't avoid Kidder when I go home, but luckily my experience on it consists only of miles of empty road on I-94.

Are you from North Dakota BRTD? I always thought you were from the Minneapolis area but you just had visited North Dakota on several occasions.

[Alcon]

I think he's originally from Bismarck, and goes to college in Minnesota.

[minionofmidas]

He's originally from Fort Yates, but was born in Bismarck because of the state of healthcare on indian reservations. He went to high school in Bismarck though. His parents are originally from Minnesota, though.