Which state has a better chance of voting Democratic?

[ChipGardnerNH]

     This goes against the conventional wisdom, but I think West Virginia has a much better chance of going Democratic.  If you assume the Democratic nominee will be Hillary and the Republican nominee will either be Giuliani or Romney, neither of those are ideal candidates for West Virginia.  In the last election, Bush was tailor-made for blue-collar, socially conservative states like West Virginia because of his cowboy image while John Kerry was a very poor candidate for West Virginia because he was a wealthy, Northeastern liberal.  Bush is wealthy too and went to Yale, but he plays the part of a Texas cowboy (and I do consider it just playing the part).
     In this election, it will be a totally different dynamic.  Giuliani does not fit West Virginia at all.  He is an urban, pro-choice Republican with an elitist lifestyle.  Their very popular Governor is a pro-life Democrat, the opposite of Giuliani.  Romney is a little more compatible with West Virginia than Giuliani is, but I don't see him connecting with "NASCAR dads" as well as Bush did.  Plus his Mormonism will hurt him.  Hillary is not ideal for the state either, but Democrats do greatly outnumber Republicans in West Virginia, and I don't see enough of them crossing party lines to vote for a Giuliani or a Romney the way they did for Bush.
     Colorado is a totally different animal.  Recent polls show Romney narrowly leading Hillary there and Giuliani way ahead of her.  McCain would also do well being from a neighboring state.  Hillary's socialized medicine won't play that well in the West.  Furthermore, many upscale suburban voters who didn't think Bush was smart enough to do the job and voted for Kerry might opt for Romney, the preppy businessman, this time around.  I don't even think Colorado is in play despite the fact the Dems are having their convention there.
     I think the nominees will be Clinton and Romney.  My prediction:

     Colorado:  Romney by 10
     West Virginia:  Clinton by 2

[ChipGardnerNH]

I think you guys are forgetting that WV is one of the most Democrat states in the entire country. Upwards of 3/4 of the state is registered Democrat.  Dukacas won WV!!!!!!!  In 2000 and 2004 the republicans went full tilt into the state with the old God, guns, and gays agenda and it worked.  Remember the swift boat ads?  They were first shown in WV.  Most people vote based on who does the best and most advertising.  The right also made claim that environmental ideals of the left would shut down the mines and jobs would be lost (I'll bet after mining disasters due to deregulation they wish they had a Democrat). The Democrats focused on a different path toward an electoral victory which was mainly Ohio and let WV go. 

You say, "In 2000 and 2004 the republicans went full tilt into the state with the old God, guns, and gays agenda and it worked."  Why do you consider believing in God to be a negative thing?  I think it's nice if someone believes in God.  I do.