Which state has a better chance of voting Democratic?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'll say Colorado because of the Democratic movement of the Inter-Mountain West.  West Virginia wouldn't be too far behind, especially if the Democratic movement in NoVa and in Southern Ohio converge, which I think its showing signs of doing.  I don't know if there is a movement in S. Ohio, but considering John Kerry briefly toyed with the idea of a recount in 2004, and its a major swing player in 2008 (that doesn't sound right, i know ).

[Person Man]

That's not my point at all. Just people who think AR and WV are now uber-GOP states on the national level seem to be thinking that two elections means everything and completely ignore the complete lack of any swing to the GOP on the state level. Or the fact that Giuliani has basically zero appeal in both as he is about as horrible a political a fit as is possible.

W.Va. swung from like a +6 state to a +10 state in just four years and four years before that, it swung from a -5 to a +5. There is a culture war going on and our nation has become polarized. Maybe this is unprecedented. Maybe if a party is really robbed of their podium in 2008 or continually robbed until 2016, maybe one party will collapse or, like last time we had this polarization, a civil war.

Colorado, otoh, went from +10 to +6 to +2 in 8 years. They probably won't lean blue, but maybe the natl average will play out there in 2008, meaning that if the dems win the popular vote, they will carry CO and vice-versa. I think the dems will have to win 56% before they can break 50 in the next election, especially with Obama....Clinton? Who knows.

This is the trend line fallacy. To draw a line of the change between two elections and then expect that that trend will continue on indefinately is a very foolish thing that I doubt any professional does.

The thing one should look at it is that all the Democratic candidates are better candidates for WV than Kerry or Gore and all the Republican candidates are pretty awful for it, especially Giuliani. Can anyone imagine how badly a candidate like Giuliani would get destroyed running for Governor or some other statewide office in WV?

Yeah, but these were trends for 1996, 2000 and 2004.  Also, W.va. represents the new GOP while CO represents the old GOP base.

[Aizen]

On the whole, the answer is Colorado. However, as many have said, it does depend on the candidates.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Colorado has the better chance of voting for the Democratic party in 2008. However, West Virginia could vote for the Dem's in 2008 depending on the ticket.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, but these were trends for 1996, 2000 and 2004.

Three elections that had a different Democratic candidate each time.

Also, W.va. represents the new GOP while CO represents the old GOP base.

Huh?

Colorado is a much stronger religious right state than WV is if that's what you mean (and no, I'm not saying that CO is more socially conservative)

On the whole, the answer is Colorado. However, as many have said, it does depend on the candidates.

I agree it depends on the candidates, but I have a tough time seeing a matchup where WV isn't it.

For example in Edwards vs. Giuliani the answer is WV hands down. The best matchup for Colorado though? Maybe Obama vs. Thompson. But even in that I'd have a tough time saying that CO is more likely than WV.

[Person Man]

Yeah, but these were trends for 1996, 2000 and 2004.

Three elections that had a different Democratic candidate each time.

Also, W.va. represents the new GOP while CO represents the old GOP base.

Huh?

Colorado is a much stronger religious right state than WV is if that's what you mean (and no, I'm not saying that CO is more socially conservative)

On the whole, the answer is Colorado. However, as many have said, it does depend on the candidates.

I agree it depends on the candidates, but I have a tough time seeing a matchup where WV isn't it.

For example in Edwards vs. Giuliani the answer is WV hands down. The best matchup for Colorado though? Maybe Obama vs. Thompson. But even in that I'd have a tough time saying that CO is more likely than WV.

1- Exactly. This shows net partisan trends.
2- Huh? How can you be religious right and not social conservative?  CO is like 40/60 pro-choice and WV is like 60/40 pro-life. (and just because Ritter was elected doesn't make CO pro-life (and Ritter pretty much stretches the pro-life definition a tad). CO was the first state to legalize abortion and I do not know of any other state or federal office holder in CO that is pro-life...you could say John Salazar, but that would be a stretch, and he said  in the paper that he wasn't pro-life) and even MA has a pro-life congressman and PA has a pro-live senator and Ohio has TWO pro-life congressmen and one congress woman who is on the fence, though they do have 1 pro-choice GOP congressman)...and the gays got with 47% of being made "legal" this election...it's only a matter of time now.
3- How could Guilani win CO. The hunters and fundies would have no reason to vote for him. The Army and AF would come out just so they can say they voted for him. However, the hispanic inroads in the south would be gone. Then again, people in places like Castle Rock, Aurora and Fort Collins would probably like him. Also, Guiliani does stronger no matter where you go in the west. People haven't heard about the rumors passed the Mississippi or Missouri yet, even in the days of instand speech.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

1- Exactly. This shows net partisan trends.

Go look at the results in Georgia from 1960-1980.

What's the net partisan trend there?

Shifts and trends happen for a reason. Too many people act like they're some sort of natural phenomena, and essentially each day a certain number of West Virginians wake up and just decide to become Republicans. It doesn't work that way, and there is no real demographic shift in the state that's benefiting Republicans (well there's the exurbanization of the panhandle, but that's still a very small part of the state)

2- Huh? How can you be religious right and not social conservative?  CO is like 40/60 pro-choice and WV is like 60/40 pro-life. (and just because Ritter was elected doesn't make CO pro-life (and Ritter pretty much stretches the pro-life definition a tad). CO was the first state to legalize abortion and I do not know of any other state or federal office holder in CO that is pro-life...you could say John Salazar, but that would be a stretch, and he said  in the paper that he wasn't pro-life)

Sure you can't be religious right and socially conservative. But you can be socially conservative and not be religious right, and WV mostly falls into this category. Similar to outstate Minnesota actually, there are lots of areas that are mostly socially conservative but if Pat Robertson ever visited he'd be ran out of town on a rail.

As far as pro-life politicians and religious right influence in Colorado: Look at Colorado's three Republican Reps + Wayne Allard. Enough said really. People like that basically never get elected in WV.

3- How could Guilani win CO. The hunters and fundies would have no reason to vote for him. The Army and AF would come out just so they can say they voted for him. However, the hispanic inroads in the south would be gone. Then again, people in places like Castle Rock, Aurora and Fort Collins would probably like him. Also, Guiliani does stronger no matter where you go in the west. People haven't heard about the rumors passed the Mississippi or Missouri yet, even in the days of instand speech.

I'll ignore the last part of this because I have no clue what you're saying.

Yeah turnout about libertarian gun nuts and fundies would be lower in Colorado with Giuliani as the nominee. But why would it be any better in WV? It's not like WV has a large batch of voters that will turn out in droves to vote for Giuliani because they love him so much. Giuliani on other hand would still win the outer Denver suburbs easily and Colorado Springs out of sheer partisanship and the rural uber-Republican counties for the same reason. This is basically what a Republican needs to win Colorado. Sure the Democrat could make enough inroads in certain parts to cancel this out, but there's no real reason to expect this to happen for sure. On the other hand, where is Giuliani going to have mass appeal in WV?

[Jake]

I think you guys are forgetting that WV is one of the most Democrat states in the entire country.

The Democrats focused on a different path toward an electoral victory which was mainly Ohio and let WV go. 

These can't go unchallenged. West Virginia is heavily Democratic on the local and state levels, however that hasn't carried over in recent elections at all. I would not be surprised at all in Manchin takes 64% again and the Republicans narrowly carry the state.

As for the second statement, the claim that the Democrats gave up on Ohio is preposterous. That was the campaign's focal point for both sides.

As for the question it depends on who the nominees are. In West Virginia, Huckabee is favored over everyone but Edwards, Edwards is favored over everybody, Romney and Giuliani are almost dead on arrival. Clinton should do well, etc. In Colorado, Obama and Clinton are favored over the Republicans except Giuliani. I'd say Colorado

[Person Man]

1- Exactly. This shows net partisan trends.

Go look at the results in Georgia from 1960-1980.

What's the net partisan trend there?

Shifts and trends happen for a reason. Too many people act like they're some sort of natural phenomena, and essentially each day a certain number of West Virginians wake up and just decide to become Republicans. It doesn't work that way, and there is no real demographic shift in the state that's benefiting Republicans (well there's the exurbanization of the panhandle, but that's still a very small part of the state)

2- Huh? How can you be religious right and not social conservative?  CO is like 40/60 pro-choice and WV is like 60/40 pro-life. (and just because Ritter was elected doesn't make CO pro-life (and Ritter pretty much stretches the pro-life definition a tad). CO was the first state to legalize abortion and I do not know of any other state or federal office holder in CO that is pro-life...you could say John Salazar, but that would be a stretch, and he said  in the paper that he wasn't pro-life)

Sure you can't be religious right and socially conservative. But you can be socially conservative and not be religious right, and WV mostly falls into this category. Similar to outstate Minnesota actually, there are lots of areas that are mostly socially conservative but if Pat Robertson ever visited he'd be ran out of town on a rail.

As far as pro-life politicians and religious right influence in Colorado: Look at Colorado's three Republican Reps + Wayne Allard. Enough said really. People like that basically never get elected in WV.

3- How could Guilani win CO. The hunters and fundies would have no reason to vote for him. The Army and AF would come out just so they can say they voted for him. However, the hispanic inroads in the south would be gone. Then again, people in places like Castle Rock, Aurora and Fort Collins would probably like him. Also, Guiliani does stronger no matter where you go in the west. People haven't heard about the rumors passed the Mississippi or Missouri yet, even in the days of instand speech.

I'll ignore the last part of this because I have no clue what you're saying.

Yeah turnout about libertarian gun nuts and fundies would be lower in Colorado with Giuliani as the nominee. But why would it be any better in WV? It's not like WV has a large batch of voters that will turn out in droves to vote for Giuliani because they love him so much. Giuliani on other hand would still win the outer Denver suburbs easily and Colorado Springs out of sheer partisanship and the rural uber-Republican counties for the same reason. This is basically what a Republican needs to win Colorado. Sure the Democrat could make enough inroads in certain parts to cancel this out, but there's no real reason to expect this to happen for sure. On the other hand, where is Giuliani going to have mass appeal in WV?

Yeah, but if Byrd wasn't on the ticket in 06, the gopers would have a chance and those GOPers were even MORE conservative and the democrats in Wva. are just as religous right as Colorado GOPers. You have THREE religious right dems elected to governor and congress in W.va.. Sure Wva is very democratic, but its a unique party in itself. Local Southern Democrats can basically co-op the GOPers social agenda while in Colorado, the democrats generally run a more cautious ship that doesn't really deviate from the national agenda.

and 1960-1980...ANYWHERE is impossible to know for have of those elections in that period were decided by majorities that would destroy either of the modern political parties. after 1984, all of the elections were decided within 10 points and after 1996, within 2 and half.

and don't the dems have their own base in CO of mountain resorts in the west, Hispanic communities in the south, College Town Exurbs in the North and the inner burbs? (Broomfield, Arapahoe and Laramier decided the election last time and with these places finding it harder and harder to vote right, who knows what will happen). The GOP could win El Paso, Weld, Douglas and Elbert by 33, instead of 35 points and lose the election.