2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[136or142]

The West Virginia filing deadline is today.  Anyone have any updates?

http://wvmetronews.com/2018/01/28/candidates-list-almost-final-for-may-primary/

By Jeff Jenkins in News | January 28, 2018 at 2:30PM

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — There appeared to be no big surprises on the final day of candidate filing for the May Primary Election in West Virginia.

None of the lists are final because there’s a chance some candidates filed by mail before Saturday’s midnight deadline and the Secretary of State’s Office hasn’t received the information yet.

From the current list, there will be seven candidates for the U.S. Senate seat held by U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. That includes two Democrats, including Manchin, and five Republicans.

All three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives have multiple candidates including the 3rd District where Rep. Evan Jenkins is running for U.S. Senate. No less than 11 candidates want that seat, seven are Republican.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

[BuckeyeNut]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

I think we've still got a solid bench in Hamilton County and I suspect Pureval will not only unseat Chabot, but end up getting pretty entrenched here for the foreseeable future (even after redistricting).

[136or142]

The West Virginia filing deadline is today.  Anyone have any updates?

Probably the final slate

http://www.politics1.com/wv.htm

[BuckeyeNut]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

I think we've still got a solid bench in Hamilton County and I suspect Pureval will not only unseat Chabot, but end up getting pretty entrenched here for the foreseeable future (even after redistricting).

Quite possibly, but the development of that bench, which is probably the strongest county bench in the state at this point, has a lot to do with the Pepper-Cranley axis of power, and who knows how long that will be maintained. Pureval's a very good get, but he's going to have trouble in Warren County.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

I think we've still got a solid bench in Hamilton County and I suspect Pureval will not only unseat Chabot, but end up getting pretty entrenched here for the foreseeable future (even after redistricting).

Quite possibly, but the development of that bench, which is probably the strongest county bench in the state at this point, has a lot to do with the Pepper-Cranley axis of power, and who knows how long that will be maintained. Pureval's a very good get, but he's going to have trouble in Warren County.

I think Warren County Republican turnout will crash until Trump is out of office.  After that, it’ll be redistricting time and Cincinnati has to go somewhere.  It can either be shoved into one safe D seat (as it would be in a fair map) or split it two ways which inevitably leaves you with a seat Pureval should be able to lockdown all things being equal (especially given the dominant Republican brand).

[KingSweden]

Interesting stat from Michael McDonald on Twitter - there are now twice as many GOP retirements as Dem ones, and the number has accelerated since early January

[Usili]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

I was admittedly looking forwards to Barr being the nominee and hoping he'd win (in part to get the first rabbi in Congress), but Pureval is likely better in terms of the potential

[BuckeyeNut]

So apparently Aftab Pureval is set to make an announcement to run for OH-1 on Wednesday.

Great, that instantly makes this seat a top-tier pickup opportunity

These HamCo polls need to be careful they don't burn up their rising stars.

I think we've still got a solid bench in Hamilton County and I suspect Pureval will not only unseat Chabot, but end up getting pretty entrenched here for the foreseeable future (even after redistricting).

Quite possibly, but the development of that bench, which is probably the strongest county bench in the state at this point, has a lot to do with the Pepper-Cranley axis of power, and who knows how long that will be maintained. Pureval's a very good get, but he's going to have trouble in Warren County.

I think Warren County Republican turnout will crash until Trump is out of office.  After that, it’ll be redistricting time and Cincinnati has to go somewhere.  It can either be shoved into one safe D seat (as it would be in a fair map) or split it two ways which inevitably leaves you with a seat Pureval should be able to lockdown all things being equal (especially given the dominant Republican brand).

That's fair, Warren County Democrats did make some notable progress last year.

[KingSweden]

AL/3: former Miss America Mallory Hagan is apparently exploring

[136or142]

AL/3: former Miss America Mallory Hagan is apparently exploring

Politics1.com
‏
 
@Politics1com
 43m43 minutes ago
More Politics1.com Retweeted Politics1.com
Update: She's running. https://www.haganforhouse.com/

[Holmes]

Could you imagine how random it would be if she won though.

[Seattle]

What is it with these Alabama papers (http://www.alreporter.com/2018/01/30/former-miss-america-mallory-hagan-considers-run-us-rep-mike-rogers-congressional-seat/) and their inability to copy-edit?

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NOT THE MOTHS!

[KingSweden]

What is it with these Alabama papers (http://www.alreporter.com/2018/01/30/former-miss-america-mallory-hagan-considers-run-us-rep-mike-rogers-congressional-seat/) and their inability to copy-edit?

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NOT THE MOTHS!

No not the moths! Not the moths! Ahahahskfnahsjfbsba

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any guesses which Republican will retire next?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Any guesses which Republican will retire next?

I suspect if Frelinghuysen was spooked enough to bolt Lance may well be next

[Mycool]

Any guesses which Republican will retire next?

Wondering if Brat announces a Senate run, opening up his seat. What will be interesting is if a) he can win the Republican primary, and b) if this makes his district into a tossup, as Democrats have a solid bench there, and Northam carried it in the Governor's race in November.

[Young Conservative]

Any guesses which Republican will retire next?

Wondering if Brat announces a Senate run, opening up his seat. What will be interesting is if a) he can win the Republican primary, and b) if this makes his district into a tossup, as Democrats have a solid bench there, and Northam carried it in the Governor's race in November.

Actually, Northam didn't carry it last year. He carried it in the 2013 lt. governor race. In 2017, Gillespie won by 3.

[Gass3268]

Heller's fundraising numbers in Q4 where not very good:

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[Doimper]

Heller's fundraising numbers in Q4 where not very good:

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bye

[Virginiá]

Nevada's filing deadline isn't for a smidgen over a month and a half; is it possible he isn't going to run for reelex?

[Badger]

Nevada's filing deadline isn't for a smidgen over a month and a half; is it possible he isn't going to run for reelex?

Considering he's got major primary challenge to have to get through first, and in this climate he is not quite Kirk esque levels of toast yet, he's approaching it. It frankly wouldn't surprise me. The party leaders probably wouldn't push him too hard to stay because it would avoid him and Danny t sucking up Financial Resources for a major primary fight which could be better for November.

[136or142]

Kentucky filing deadline was today.  Anybody have any updates?

[136or142]

'Proco' Joe Moreno has dropped out.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/ald-moreno-drops-out-of-race-for-congressional-seat-given-up-by-gutierrez/