2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

[IceSpear]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Yep. As I said, Putin will not let the United Russia party lose a seat in Congress without a fight.

[Brittain33]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Yep. As I said, Putin will not let the United Russia party lose a seat in Congress without a fight.

Our Home is Newport Beach

[Kamala]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Yep. As I said, Putin will not let the United Russia party lose a seat in Congress without a fight.

Our Home is Newport Beach

Ah, Rorhabacher’s is the Arrested Development district. Good to know.

[YE]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Calling it now. Rohrabacher will retire.

[Oryxslayer]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

Calling it now. Rohrabacher will retire.

Rochrabacher has always striked me as the king of guy who is happy to go down with the ship rather then jump off honorably.

[The Other Castro]

Stivers says more retirements coming.

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/10/house-republican-retirements-issa-royce-333851

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When is Comstock jumping ship?

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Jan 8-9, 1312 RV (change from last week)

D 44 (+2)
R 37 (+1)

[BuckeyeNut]

It looks like the GOP is going to fail to run candidates against Kaptur, Beatty, and Fudge. That should decrease GOP turnout in Ohio by about ... 6,000.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It looks like the GOP is going to fail to run candidates against Kaptur, Beatty, and Fudge. That should decrease GOP turnout in Ohio by about ... 6,000.

And Tim Ryan is going to slaughter anyone who runs against him in the GE. I can understand if Republicans would want to run everywhere too, in fact I think that is a good strategy, but really, what the hell are they thinking to classify Ohio 13th as a NRCC target district?! Even Hillary got the majority of the vote here XD, and she is possibly the weakest democrat (barring pedos and such) ever for a district like this one.

[Doimper]

lol

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[OneJ]

lol

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LMFAO.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac: D+17

Dem: 52
Rep: 35

Source

[Doimper]

Quinnipiac: D+17

Dem: 52
Rep: 35

Source

Is this the tax reform bump in action?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac: D+17

Dem: 52
Rep: 35

Source

Their previous poll (Dec 13-18) was 52-37 (D+15).

[Holmes]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

[Virginiá]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

Oh man, with a D+17 House PV, we'd be way past talking about Clinton districts. That margin would probably get Democrats awfully close to a veto-proof majority in the chamber. Not that I personally think that result is actually possible, though. This kind of poll does remind me of RCP's 2006/2008 listings - there were tons of polls showing mid-high teens for Democrats, but it eventually settled at a lower margin.

[Doimper]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

Oh man, with a D+17 House PV, we'd be way past talking about Clinton districts. That margin would probably get Democrats awfully close to a veto-proof majority in the chamber. Not that I personally think that result is actually possible, though. This kind of poll does remind me of RCP's 2006/2008 listings - there were tons of polls showing mid-high teens for Democrats, but it eventually settled at a lower margin.

Yeah, if we're talking 17-point margins, we should be looking at that map Griffin made of 120 potentially competitive districts.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

Q's wording eliminates any incumbency benefit, so it probably does make a difference.

[Devout Centrist]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

It's a rather "generic" way to ask the question. It reminds me of the polls we saw in Alabama; voters said they preferred that the Republicans control the US Senate by a nine point margin. Yet Jones managed the win the election. I think it largely depends on the context.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

It's a rather "generic" way to ask the question. It reminds me of the polls we saw in Alabama; voters said they preferred that the Republicans control the US Senate by a nine point margin. Yet Jones managed the win the election. I think it largely depends on the context.

I think the final exit polls were 50 people preferred R vs 45 people preferred D, and Jones won by 1.5

[Gustaf]

Someone with time on their hands should make a model based on a few characteristics and the results in the specials+VA+NJ and run it on the Congressional districts.

[The Other Castro]

CookPoliticalReport @CookPolitical

Today's Rating Changes:
#AZ02 (OPEN R-McSally): Toss Up -> Lean D
#OH12 (OPEN R-Tiberi): Solid R -> Likely R
#WA05 (R-McMorris Rodgers): Solid R -> Likely R

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/951902115152117760