2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Adam Griffin]

CNN generic ballot:

Democratic 56%
Republican 38%

Worth noting that:

Year	House PV	CNN GCB (12 months out)	PV Diff from GCB
1998	R+1.1	Tie	1.1
2002	R+4.8	R+5	0.2
2006	D+8.0	D+7	1.0
2010	R+6.8	R+6	0.8
2014	R+5.7	R+2	3.7

Historically pretty accurate; 2014 was off by the most and even that is basically margin of error territory in a normal poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It seems the GOP tax bill is losing the Republicans support.

[KingSweden]

It seems the GOP tax bill is losing the Republicans support.

Shh nobody tell LimoTroll

[Comrade Funk]

Where is the reaction from Limo"Liberal"?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What more can we expect from Rain in Nova?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What more can we expect from Rain in Nova?

D+18 is only if the entire USA is sunny. Obviously that won't be the case.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What more can we expect from Rain in Nova?

D+18 is only if the entire USA is sunny. Obviously that won't be the case.

Issa and Rohrabacher are doomed, then.  It never rains in Southern California.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten's thoughts:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Where is the reaction from Limo"Liberal"?

He's too busy posting pro-Trump polls at RRH

Or posting pro-Trump bullsh**t on PredictIt

[Holmes]

It rained in NoVA and Dems swept there. Rain is good now.

[Kamala]

Also to consider: since Democrats are more compacted into high-D PVI districts, there’s only a limited number of more votes they can squeeze of them. Thus, you could imagine that the difference between a popular vote of D+16 and D+8 would be even more massive than thought. There’s not a lot more votes that Ds could get in New York City, for example, since a lot of those areas already vote 80-20 D-R. So the increased margin has to come from more swingy districts, or from safe R districts.

[Holmes]

Also to consider: since Democrats are more compacted into high-D PVI districts, there’s only a limited number of more votes they can squeeze of them. Thus, you could imagine that the difference between a popular vote of D+16 and D+8 would be even more massive than thought. There’s not a lot more votes that Ds could get in New York City, for example, since a lot of those areas already vote 80-20 D-R. So the increased margin has to come from more swingy districts, or from safe R districts.

We saw this in Shelby county (and to a smaller extent in Baldwin county) last week in AL, and the Tennessee special election last night, and all the specials in Oklahoma this past year.

[adrac]

18 points honey, would you look at that.

Also to consider: since Democrats are more compacted into high-D PVI districts, there’s only a limited number of more votes they can squeeze of them. Thus, you could imagine that the difference between a popular vote of D+16 and D+8 would be even more massive than thought. There’s not a lot more votes that Ds could get in New York City, for example, since a lot of those areas already vote 80-20 D-R. So the increased margin has to come from more swingy districts, or from safe R districts.

This is something I always emphasize to my irl friends whenever they talk about what margin is necessary for the Democrats to overcome the Republican gerrymander just by looking at universal swing. There's a certain point at which you start overperforming universal swing hardcore, and +16 is well past that. We also have to consider that at double digit margins I imagine that gerrymanders in many places start seriously backfiring.

[junior chįmp]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other words the GOP is finito!

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other words the GOP is finito!

At this point, the Senate is more interesting.

This doesn't even include the races where Dems have strong candidates like KS-02, UT-04 and WV-03.

[adrac]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In other words the GOP is finito!

At this point, the Senate is more interesting.

Definitely having trouble seeing Ted Cruz pull through with margins like that. Absolutely ridiculous things can happen here.

[junior chįmp]

Not sure if this should go here but seems relevant:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[IceSpear]

Losing a seat
WV

[YE]

Not sure if this should go here but seems relevant:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So basically a net wash for both parties in terms of redistricting?

[Brittain33]

The above map only covers through 2017, but we know states will continue to grow or stagnate and lose or gain additional seats. On the Geography board, Muon has projected through 2020:

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2017 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 7 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There are no changes since my projections last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, FL-29, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, MN-8, NY-36, and CA-54.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives an extra seat to MT at the expense of one from CA.

[LimoLiberal]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

[IceSpear]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

lol

[Doimper]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

lol

[GlobeSoc]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

lol

[The Other Castro]

PPP has a bunch of (I think) new House polls:

CA-10: Denham trails Generic Democrat 49-41
CA-39: Royce trails Generic Democrat 46-43
CA-45: Walters trails Generic Democrat 45-41
NJ-11: Frelinghuysen trails Generic Democrat 49-40
PA-08: Fitzpatrick trails Generic Democrat 47-41

https://mobile.twitter.com/ppppolls/status/943596029068312576?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother