2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

[The Other Castro]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

[OneJ]

Nate Silver,

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Source.

Legitimate question: How much clout should we continue to give Silver after his seriously botched 2016 prediction.

At least Silver actually gave Trump a chance to win the election. As a matter of fact, in his model he acknowledged that he had an unusually high chance of winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

Plus, other analysts didn't give Trump a chance at all.

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

[McGovernForPrez]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

He was also backed by the Montana political establishment. The Quist loss had more to do with his individual weakness as a candidate than his Bernie association. Most of those weaknesses weren't known by anybody until it was too late.

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently..

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

He was also backed by the Montana political establishment. The Quist loss had more to do with his individual weakness as a candidate than his Bernie association. Most of those weaknesses weren't known by anybody until it was too late.

Agree. And don't understand why establishment backed him. Even his some initial positions (before personal flaws became known), like strong support for gun control, were very difficult to sell in Montana

[BuckeyeNut]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently.

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

[smoltchanov]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently.

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

Do you REALLY think that i care about your opinion??? Not even funny,,,, In fact - i relish such comments from such persons)))

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We didn't catch this, but Sanders' IA state director and experienced IA liberal pol Pete D'Alessandro has been exploring a bid for the IA-3 for a month.

I have doubts about Berniecrats winning districts which swung right of late... We saw an example in MT-AL recently.

We saw an example of what happens when you nominate a stoner, tax avoiding, nudist associating, politically inexperienced folk singer.

Yeah. But supported by Bernie nevertheless...

Do some candidate research before making pronouncements, eh?

I always do. Read about it in a number of Internet sources (including Daily Kos) and had no reason to doubt it. May be - not Bernie himself, but Bernie-associated organizations, but there is no difference for me.

1: Not what Chickenhawk meant
2: The bold evinces why you are one of the worst posters on here.

Do you REALLY think that i care about your opinion??? Not even funny,,,, In fact - i relish it)))

Dude, get over yourself.

[Badger]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

[Mike Thick]

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Saw the last name, thought it was Weird Al. Was disappointed.

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

[Badger]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

Yes, but IIRC didn't OH-1 have boundaries all within Hamilton County? Its PVI is notably more GOP friendly with the addition of Warren.

[KingSweden]

Sittenfeld would honestly be better vs Chabot, IMO

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

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[KingSweden]

From Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

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That'd be what, 70 seats or so?

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Dave Wasserman at Cook Political Report:

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That'd be what, 70 seats or so?

It's currently 239R, 193D, and 3 vacancies.  One of the vacancies is CA-34, which is about to be filled by a Democrat (both candidates in the runoff are D) so that's effectively 194.  So it would be a shift of about 65 to 67.

[BuckeyeNut]

DCCC is looking to draft Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, to challenge Steve Chabot in the OH-01. Chabot's gone down in a wave before, but his district is more conservative now.

Portune would be a strong recruit and would probably put the seat in play, but we have a strong bench in Hamilton County either way.

True, the Hamilton bench is significant, but Portune's got great crossover appeal.

Yeah, but not sure how much that helps him since Hamilton was gorilla-f$cked by splitting it into two districts and including all of Warren in the 1st.

While OH-01 is more conservative than ever, Chabot's gone out in a wave before.

Yes, but IIRC didn't OH-1 have boundaries all within Hamilton County? Its PVI is notably more GOP friendly with the addition of Warren.

Nope.

Sittenfeld would honestly be better vs Chabot, IMO

Eh. PG would play worse in the Butler county segments.

[Sorenroy]

Went to the Democratic District Convention for District 10 and two of the people there had set up exploratory committees on entering the race for the district. Do I remember who they were? No. Could there have been more people who didn't go? Yes.

But what I do know is that District 10 will almost definitely be contested in 2018, and that people are looking towards running right now.

[Wiz in Wis]

Curiouser and Curiouser:

Ex-GOP Rep Richard Hanna considering running for Congress in NY22 - as an Independent. District currently held by GOPer Claudia Tenney. Apparently there is some bad blood between them, and this would certainly open up the district for a Dem pickup opportunity.

http://wibx950.com/richard-hanna-for-congress-again-former-representatives-candid-take-on-washington/

[Kamala]

Curiouser and Curiouser:

Ex-GOP Rep Richard Hanna considering running for Congress in NY22 - as an Independent. District currently held by GOPer Claudia Tenney. Apparently there is some bad blood between them, and this would certainly open up the district for a Dem pickup opportunity.

http://wibx950.com/richard-hanna-for-congress-again-former-representatives-candid-take-on-washington/

I think Hanna would more likely caucus with the Dems unless the Republicans majorly repudiate Trumpism and the President, so it could possibly be more wise to "sit out" this election and explicitly or implicitly support Hanna.

[BuckeyeNut]

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th.

[Brittain33]

Avon-based Ken Harbaugh, and Ivy-educated Navy pilot and non-profit President, to challenge Bob Gibbs in the Ohio 7th.

Trump won this district by 30 points on a huge swing from 2012. Good luck with that.