2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[junior chįmp]

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Woo! Flip imminent!

[136or142]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

[Young Conservative]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

[136or142]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

Honestly, I'm a bit worried about this seat.  While Hulings doesn't seem like a particularly bad candidate or anything like that (solid B-lister, I'd say), Hurd beat Pete Gallego (an infinitely stronger candidate than Hulings who was basically a perfect fit for the district) twice so he's clearly no pushover.  I worry that the DCCC threw all its weight behind Hulings early on simply because of his connections with the Castro brothers rather than his strength as a candidate (potentially discouraging better candidates from running).  OTOH, maybe no one better was interested for whatever reason.  That said, Hulings can obviously still beat Hurd and this race will probably be close no matter what, but if he does then it'll be strictly because of the size of the wave/exceptional Hispanic turnout.  Right now, I have this district as toss-up tilt-R, but much closer to Lean R than tossup tilt-D (pure tossup is a cop-out category imo ).

[Young Conservative]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

Honestly, I'm a bit worried about this seat.  While Hulings doesn't seem like a particularly bad candidate or anything like that (solid B-lister, I'd say), Hurd beat Pete Gallego (an infinitely stronger candidate than Hulings who was basically a perfect fit for the district) twice so he's clearly no pushover.  I worry that the DCCC threw all its weight behind Hulings early on simply because of his connections with the Castro brothers rather than his strength as a candidate (potentially discouraging better candidates from running).  OTOH, maybe no one better was interested for whatever reason.  That said, Hulings can obviously still beat Hurd and this race will probably be close no matter what, but if he does then it'll be strictly because of the size of the wave/exceptional Hispanic turnout.  Right now, I have this district as toss-up tilt-R, but much closer to Lean R than tossup tilt-D (pure tossup is a cop-out category imo ).

I agree. This district is safe than some districts that are more Republican simply by nature of the Republican's strength and Democratic Party fielding poor candidates.

[Jeppe]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Be that as it may, the other two candidates (one of whom has barely raised anything IIRC) are weaker than Hulings.

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Will Hurd is perceived as moderate and is a great campaigner. I think he can keep it close despite the climate.

Yes, this is why I was asking.  I saw him in an interview and was very impressed.

Honestly, I'm a bit worried about this seat.  While Hulings doesn't seem like a particularly bad candidate or anything like that (solid B-lister, I'd say), Hurd beat Pete Gallego (an infinitely stronger candidate than Hulings who was basically a perfect fit for the district) twice so he's clearly no pushover.  I worry that the DCCC threw all its weight behind Hulings early on simply because of his connections with the Castro brothers rather than his strength as a candidate (potentially discouraging better candidates from running).  OTOH, maybe no one better was interested for whatever reason.  That said, Hulings can obviously still beat Hurd and this race will probably be close no matter what, but if he does then it'll be strictly because of the size of the wave/exceptional Hispanic turnout.  Right now, I have this district as toss-up tilt-R, but much closer to Lean R than tossup tilt-D (pure tossup is a cop-out category imo ).

I agree. This district is safe than some districts that are more Republican simply by nature of the Republican's strength and Democratic Party fielding poor candidates.

It’s not so much that Hulings is a bad candidate per-se as it is that he’s a decidedly meh one running against a really strong incumbent.  

[smoltchanov]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

[Jeppe]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

[smoltchanov]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

Nevertheless - exceptions EXIST. Why this can't be one of them??

[Jeppe]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

Nevertheless - exceptions EXIST. Why this can't be one of them??

They’re called exceptions because they don’t happen often. The district is 70% Hispanic and 15% white, the shots of a white candidate winning the Democratic nomination in a seat like this are fairly low, unless they’re an incumbent. Just like how one wouldn’t expect a black guy to win the Republican primary in Montana or what not, it could happen, just unlikely with modern voting habits.

[junior chįmp]

New Marist College Generic Congressional Poll Shows DEMs with a 13 Point Lead

[smoltchanov]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

Nevertheless - exceptions EXIST. Why this can't be one of them??

They’re called exceptions because they don’t happen often. The district is 70% Hispanic and 15% white, the shots of a white candidate winning the Democratic nomination in a seat like this are fairly low, unless they’re an incumbent. Just like how one wouldn’t expect a black guy to win the Republican primary in Montana or what not, it could happen, just unlikely with modern voting habits.

Green won in Hispanic district in 1992 when it was open. Defeating hispanics candidates. I remember Black candidate winning state Senate district in Mississippi, which was more then 90% white. And, vice versa: at least 4-5 majority Black state legislative districts elect white legislators in Louisiana, some - in Mississippi, and so on. Personally i absolutely don't care about candidate's race: for me it's best when distric elects "best possible candidate:. And if so - i don't care whether it's he or she, straight or gay/lesbian/trangender, white or black, hispanics, asian or native american. And so on. If congressmen reflects distict views - everything is ok and no "correction" is required.

[junior chįmp]

Oh my God....I can't even....whew lads:

]

[adrac]

Oh my God....I can't even....whew lads:

]

If he and Ted Cruz lose I will start going to church again every week.

No two people I want to see lose in 2018 more...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh my God....I can't even....whew lads:

]

If he and Ted Cruz lose I will start going to church again every week.

No two people I want to see lose in 2018 more...

Steve King comes to mind.  (Not happening, though.)

[junior chįmp]

Oh my God....I can't even....whew lads:

]

If he and Ted Cruz lose I will start going to church again every week.

No two people I want to see lose in 2018 more...

Steve King comes to mind.  (Not happening, though.)

Through Trump....all things are possible. Inshallah

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, Dec 10-12, 806 adults

D 51
R 36

Trump approval: 32/56

[Virginiá]

Monmouth, Dec 10-12, 806 adults

D 51
R 36

Trump approval: 32/56

Double digit polling leads in the generic ballot are becoming more and more numerous. I said it before and I'll say it again - this looks very similar to the 2005-2006 time period.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

[junior chįmp]

Doug Jones victory motivating people to run:

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[Virginiá]

Doug Jones victory motivating people to run:

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Excellent news!

I just hope people are running for a diverse set of offices straight down the ballot, instead of piling into ever-growing clown car Congressional primaries. There are a slew of House races that already have a big slate of candidates, and any more could actually hurt in various parts of California and maybe Washington. At-risk incumbents like Rohrabacher would benefit from a baker's dozen of Democrats splitting the vote and enabling an RvR general election.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So yeah Iowa doesn't like Trump or Blum right now https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/945913001#click=https://t.co/hDgAUI3iTg

[junior chįmp]

So yeah Iowa doesn't like Trump or Blum right now https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/945913001#click=https://t.co/hDgAUI3iTg

Totally predictable. Trump is like a one night stand you regret and Iowa is really regretting getting in bed with Trump.

I'm predicting a 70+ seat loss in the House. The long awaited GOP crack up is coming folks

[Holmes]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.