MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way (user search)
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  MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way (search mode)
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Author Topic: MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way  (Read 4362 times)
Dr. Arch
Arch
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Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« on: September 21, 2016, 01:51:22 PM »

Trump won't win Wisconsin. Outside of the WoW area, he's an absolute horrible fit for the state.

The GB area is heavily Catholic and adverse to anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The MKE area has heavy minority populations that will swing hard against him.
He's absolutely hated in Dane County.
The MN twin cities exurbs of the northeast are likely to reject him as well.

His best areas will be the WoW counties and, possibly, parts of the central northern areas of the state. Undecideds will break heavily against him, and Feingold is actually doing the work of energizing turnout because people want him back in the seat he shouldn't have lost.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 03:25:31 PM »

Trump won't win Wisconsin. Outside of the WoW area, he's an absolute horrible fit for the state.

The GB area is heavily Catholic and adverse to anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The MKE area has heavy minority populations that will swing hard against him.
He's absolutely hated in Dane County.
The MN twin cities exurbs of the northeast are likely to reject him as well.

His best areas will be the WoW counties and, possibly, parts of the central northern areas of the state. Undecideds will break heavily against him, and Feingold is actually doing the work of energizing turnout because people want him back in the seat he shouldn't have lost.

What's your thought on final margin?

If things pan out as we're expecting, the margin will be somewhere between 2012 and 2008, about Clinton +9 with some GB area and MN exurb counties flipping.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 03:57:34 PM »

Trump won't win Wisconsin. Outside of the WoW area, he's an absolute horrible fit for the state.

The GB area is heavily Catholic and adverse to anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The MKE area has heavy minority populations that will swing hard against him.
He's absolutely hated in Dane County.
The MN twin cities exurbs of the northeast are likely to reject him as well.

His best areas will be the WoW counties and, possibly, parts of the central northern areas of the state. Undecideds will break heavily against him, and Feingold is actually doing the work of energizing turnout because people want him back in the seat he shouldn't have lost.

What's your thought on final margin?

If things pan out as we're expecting, the margin will be somewhere between 2012 and 2008, about Clinton +9 with some GB area and MN exurb counties flipping.

Trump is up 8% in the Green Bay/Appelton media market and he has been for at least the last 3 polls.

Some counties, not most or all.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 05:59:04 PM »


Then he has already lost.
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