UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[IceAgeComing]

my bold prediction at this point is that in terms of seats; the Lib Dems beat the Tories (and Labour of course) in Scotland.

[IceAgeComing]

I don't know whether my local branch are standing anyone: we've been focusing on the locals (since we have a chance of electing a few councillors) and after that I think there'll be a decision.  There's an outside shot of a Tory winning here but its not one of the top targets; although at current polling who really knows...

[IceAgeComing]

Prediction:
Tories - 385
Labour - 180
SNP - 50
DUP - 8
Lib Dems - 7
Greens - 2
Northern Ireland Seats - 18

The DUP should be in the 18 NI seat count.

I meant PC not sure why I put DUP

Where on earth are you getting five Plaid gains from?

[IceAgeComing]

I'd have Ceredigion ahead of Rhondda - the last would be a real rich, never mind two past that...

[IceAgeComing]

I'm not going to go for actual seat numbers since I'm not confident about that UK-wide.  I will predict a Tory majority of somewhere around 50; the SNP will be somewhere between 45 and 50 and that the Lib Dems probably pick up a few net in order to get into double digits.

I will make an NI prediction, because why not

DUP 7 (-1)
Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
SDLP 3 (+-)
Alliance 1 (+1)
Independent 1 (+-)
UUP 1 (-1)

Sinn Fein gain Fermanagh and South Tyrone from the UUP (pretty sure about this if its at all similar to the Assembly election turnout-wise) and the Alliance gain Belfast East from the DUP (that's a bit of a reach admittedly).  The UUP hold South Antrim in a tight race, as to the SDLP in Belfast South.

[IceAgeComing]

Speaker is non-party: elected by secret ballot by MPs (not usually by party line - indeed Bercow has always been supported more by Labour MPs) and once they leave the position (by choice unless they've screwed up massively) then they get a peerage and become a cross-bench peer.  That's the precedent, at least!

e: first useful stuff is the Exit poll at 10; most of the chat until the first results is rubbish