Jeb Bush Should Face Facts: It’s Time to Drop Out

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

NIMWIT IS NOT A WORD

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/nimwit

Actual dictionaries show either nitwit or dimwit.

dictionaries are one of the things where you should absolutely trust crowdsourcing over institutions tbh.
but we're getting off topic

[Bull Moose Base]

I argued months ago there is a plausible scenario where even if Bush hasn't won any states, he stays in and bets on Florida turning it around.

You do realize that 25 states have primaries or caucuses before Florida does?  How is winning his home state going to turn things around after he's just lost 25 contests?

If Trump (or Trump and Carson) is sweeping the primaries before that, the establishment will still try to stop him (or beat both) and there will be a sense they're fragile until they win.

Bush could be the establishment horse at that point if he's outperforming every other option and outpolling them in Florida.

Bush could still be picking up delegates in earlier contests and a win in WTA Florida would land him a big delegate prize and give the media a story about the campaign turning.




 

[Mr. Morden]

I just don't see what's so special about Florida.  Sure, it's one of the few statewide WTA states, but there are other states that are "winner take most", where anyone who wins the state by more than a few points will win the lion's share of the delegates.  If fully half the states have voted before an "establishment savior" gets his first victory (and that victory is from his home state, so more likely to be written off as a fluke), then it's likely too late.

I mean, I do think that it's more likely than not that one of the establishment friendly candidates will win the nomination, but that seems like an implausible way for it to happen.

[The Mikado]

I argued months ago there is a plausible scenario where even if Bush hasn't won any states, he stays in and bets on Florida turning it around. He's still a good bet to be the establishment's pick. Though Rubio has momentum and he doesn't, Bush has only recently begun to run ads, only barely begun to attack Rubio and has yet to begin attacking Rubio with ads. On top of that, we've yet to see who gets hurt in Trump vs Rubio. Bush might get lucky and it'd be both.

If a candidate has won zero states by Super Tuesday, he isn't winning any states after it.