JMC: Moore +8 Moore 30% Strange 22% Brooks 19%

[Classic Conservative]

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Alabama-Senate-Republican-Executive-Summary-Release.pdf

Moore 30%
Strange 22%
Brooks 19%
Pittman 6%
Brison 2%
Undecided 17%

Moore is the only one with a higher favorable than unfavorable

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A Moore vs. Brooks runoff would be great!!

[TheLeftwardTide]

Moore would make this race go from Safe R to Likely R. That said, I hope Strange wins the nomination because he's the most moderate and most likely to depress turnout from the conservative base.

[TheSaint250]

Why

[GlobeSoc]

I expect Moore to overperform the primary polls at strange's expense. Brooks wont win lol.

Moore would make this race go from Safe R to Likely R. That said, I hope Strange wins the nomination because he's the most moderate and most likely to depress turnout from the conservative base.

Only brooks would make it safe r. The rest are either damaged or unknown.

[TheSaint250]

Also I would be both afraid and be laughing very hard if Strange doesn't make the runoff

[Fudotei]

There's a very odd phenomenon going on here, honestly. The winner of the Democratic primary is a nobody who people are probably genuinely mistaking for Bobby Kennedy's kid (who is a real person but lives in New York and is white).

Plus, in this poll, 71% of the public say they're voting in the GOP Senate primary. Compare that to Shelby getting 64% of the overall vote in 2016, and the fact that this is a midterm special election.

What's key I think is that Roy Moore gets a positive approval rating (+19!) with 71% of the overall electorate. Especially compared to the double digit underwater numbers among the other Republicans, I'm confident Moore will pull this one off. He's not Shelby -- 53/29 among the general public -- but Moore's pretty popular in Alabama.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I expect Moore to overperform the primary polls at strange's expense. Brooks wont win lol.

Moore would make this race go from Safe R to Likely R. That said, I hope Strange wins the nomination because he's the most moderate and most likely to depress turnout from the conservative base.

Only brooks would make it safe r. The rest are either damaged or unknown.

Uhh no. Brooks is seen as anti-Trump and an opportunist because of Strange's (mostly true) ads.

[Mike Thick]

There's a very odd phenomenon going on here, honestly. The winner of the Democratic primary is a nobody who people are probably genuinely mistaking for Bobby Kennedy's kid (who is a real person but lives in New York and is white).

Plus, in this poll, 71% of the public say they're voting in the GOP Senate primary. Compare that to Shelby getting 64% of the overall vote in 2016, and the fact that this is a midterm special election.

What's key I think is that Roy Moore gets a positive approval rating (+19!) with 71% of the overall electorate. Especially compared to the double digit underwater numbers among the other Republicans, I'm confident Moore will pull this one off. He's not Shelby -- 53/29 among the general public -- but Moore's pretty popular in Alabama.

This is a poll of Republicans, right?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's a very odd phenomenon going on here, honestly. The winner of the Democratic primary is a nobody who people are probably genuinely mistaking for Bobby Kennedy's kid (who is a real person but lives in New York and is white).

Plus, in this poll, 71% of the public say they're voting in the GOP Senate primary. Compare that to Shelby getting 64% of the overall vote in 2016, and the fact that this is a midterm special election.

What's key I think is that Roy Moore gets a positive approval rating (+19!) with 71% of the overall electorate. Especially compared to the double digit underwater numbers among the other Republicans, I'm confident Moore will pull this one off. He's not Shelby -- 53/29 among the general public -- but Moore's pretty popular in Alabama.

This is a poll of Republicans, right?

The first question is a screening question, and their sample is simply described as "registered voters", so the 29% non-yes is apparently Ds or D leaners.

[Young Conservative]

It would be amazing if the big money, corrupt, establishment candidate didn't make the runoff. I doubt that will happen though. A Moore VS Brooks primary would certainly result in Brooks winning though.

[Chief Justice Keef]

My guess is Brooks ends up winning the runoff and therefore the general.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'd be satisfied just to see Moore getting the nomination, and winning the general. He'd owe absolutely nothing to Republican leadership, and might not be a guaranteed vote for big GOP agenda items.

[Fudotei]

Trump endorsement of Strange probably puts him over the top in terms of the primary -- him and Moore -- but the available data (favorable ratings of Brooks, Strange, and Moore with Moore as the only one positively identified) says Moore will probably pull that off.

[maga2020]

I'd be satisfied just to see Moore getting the nomination, and winning the general. He'd owe absolutely nothing to Republican leadership, and might not be a guaranteed vote for big GOP agenda items.

In what issues do we see Moore voting with the democrats? He will be one one of the 5 most conservative members in the Senate.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'd be satisfied just to see Moore getting the nomination, and winning the general. He'd owe absolutely nothing to Republican leadership, and might not be a guaranteed vote for big GOP agenda items.

In what issues do we see Moore voting with the democrats? He will be one one of the 5 most conservative members in the Senate.

Exactly. I see him as being more of a Ted Cruz/Ron Johnson/Rand Paul kind of Republican, who would help kill another attempt to repeal the ACA, or something that requires big spending like a border wall.

[Maxwell]

It would be amazing if the big money, corrupt, establishment candidate didn't make the runoff. I doubt that will happen though. A Moore VS Brooks primary would certainly result in Brooks winning though.

That's hard for me to believe - Moore is actually popular, where as Brooks took a principled stand once in his life and is just getting brutalized for it by Strange. That is going to stick.