Seems about right. Though Virginia will drop off as the number 1 state in a few cycles as it transitions to a strongly democratic state.
I don't see VA becoming strong anything. It's matched the popular vote the last two times and likely will be the same way in 2016. Obama was an incredible candidate for Virginia so the trend has been skewed.
You've made your position on this clear. The fact remains that in the last 16 years, Virginia has consistently trended democrat. You seem to respond to posts where no facts are presented on this. But I've posted in many other threads with specific links to articles about how population growth in northern Virginia and population loss in southwestern Virginia is making the state more democratic. You seem to ignore those threads.
The fact is that since 2010, 90% of the population growth has been in areas where Obama won. More than 50% of Virginia's population growth was in Northern Virginia alone. All in counties that Obama won heavily. Most in counties that even Kerry won.
Since 2010, nearly 100% of Virginia's population loss (though there was not a net loss statewide) has been in areas that Romney won. The vast majority in southwestern Virginia, where Romney won by 70-30 margins.
The population trends have actually sped up and Northern Virginia is expected to go from about 28-32% of the state population (depending upon how the borders are defined) to about 36-40% of the population within the next 20 years.
Please explain to us how the math works if 40% of the state is voting heavily Democratic? Remember, the other 60% is not entirely Republican. The Richmond area skews Democrat. So do several college towns. Virginia Beach is evenly split. Additionally, there are a string of counties that are a majority black in southern Virginia.
