This formula can be used for other elections as well, and also to predict future elections based on current trends or on predictions based on polls asking for a future vote.
This is the formula I've used: 100/margin from popular vote*number of EVs
This formula takes two factors into account; the importance of a state based on its strenght as in population or number of EVs and also the importance of a state based on how far it was in percentage from the actual popular vote. Of course, here I could have used the tipping point state as well, but I opted out of it, since that is something that varies heavily from election to election and is, to a substantial degree, influences by randomness and noise. The popular vote is much more stable than the tipping point, since it take all 50 + D.C. states into account.
So here's the list of the most important states in the 2012 election based on significance for the electoral outcome:
1. Virginia: 130 000
2. Ohio: 2045.5
VA is 130,000??
