Washington state megathread

[ottermax]

Any recent updates on the WA-10 race? I think it's interesting that the two frontrunners so far seem to be black women as it would be nice to finally have some black representation in the Pacific Northwest. I don't know much about their actual stances on any issues, but I do think the optics are interesting given the rise of BLM this past month.

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This comparison is interesting, but wouldn't a primary to primary comparison be better as it looks like minority turnout is driving the numbers in much of South King County, which is just generally lower in primaries.

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Thank you these results feel a little less extreme especially in minority heavy areas.

It does make me wonder... are minority voters just not voting as much, or actually swinging Republican? Or are white voters in these areas increasing turnout? Or have voters across racial lines swung Republican in these South King County areas?

[ottermax]

Looks like a record number of African-American legislators will be joining after these elections. Tanisha Harris in LD 17 looks impressive, anyone knows what is going on there?

[ottermax]

Washington Democrats are very loyal in a way that does make it structurally difficult for Republicans to breakthrough. This is true in Oregon and California as well (and increasingly in Nevada, Colorado ... maybe Arizona?)

I believe it is due to relatively high and consistent voter turnout, especially because Democrats rely on a voter based of college educated voters who turnout consistently. I think the only way to get Republican opportunities would be to completely shift the brand of the party a la Vermont's Phil Scott.

However I don't know if the WA GOP would ever be comfortable becoming an anti-Trumpist, moderate party. There is a large number of voters in Washington who dislike taxes and are pretty moderate (the left is very loud, but still a minority) so an environmentally savvy, low-tax, professional Republican could eventually take the helm... but only if the entire legislative GOP becomes less susceptible to big scary news stories and conspiracies like Culp.

[ottermax]

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread, which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: Image Link

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

This concept probably would work in theory, but I believe a lot of the voters in question are very low turnout especially for state elections.

Also in my experience there is significant animosity in many of these communities between rural "Anglo" Washingtonians and Hispanic communities that may be difficult to overcome.

Especially because the elections for governor are paired with presidential elections perhaps the best way for the GOP to elect a governor is to put up a very palatable candidate and hope for a landslide for the GOP at a presidential level that makes WA closer?

Another plausible option is a recall election?

[ottermax]

Is there a reason Democrats left so many seats unopposed in somewhat competitive districts like 12 and 15? Obviously this isn't an easy year for Democrats, but to put up NOBODY? That just seems like a poor judgment. Especially District 15 when Latinos are leaving the party in droves... at least put someone up to run!

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WA-03 Primary:

Image Link

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

These patterns are really interesting. Does anyone know what might be behind the patterns for each GOP candidate?

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Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?

[ottermax]

Presented without comment.

Congrats!