What do you think is the political future of Michigan?

[S019]

competitive, but probably trends to the right long term as Democratic strength falls in industrial areas and Detroit loses population, it remains competitive overall due to Democratic growth in Oakland County and the Grand Rapids metro.

[S019]

Yes but it largely trended right in 2016 and 2020 because of Trump.  It's not a great state for a run of the mill conservative southern Republican.  

A non populist Republican like Cruz or DeSantis would lose Michigan by over 5%.

I agree with both of you. Other than Trump, which Republicans can contend in MI in a close election? PA is probably also a state specific to Trump, though it is trending R more reliably.

Is it basically Hawley and Tucker? Former can't win the nomination (not enough charisma), latter won't run (prefers his current gig I'm sure) imo.

Most Republicans can, people forget that Michigan, along with the rest of the Rust Belt was a close state before Obama came along. This "only Trump can win Michigan" analysis is lazy analysis on tier with "Hillary Clinton was uniquely weak in the Midwest, and Biden will bring back Obama numbers."