2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Angrie]

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/796115010997063680

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uhhh….that adds up to over 100%. 

Some voters are conflicted.

[Angrie]

Racial makeup, per CNN TV:

white 70
black 12
latino 11
asian 4
other race 3

About as one would expect. Comparison to 2012 exits:

white: -2%
black -1%
latino +1%
asian +1%
other +1%

[Angrie]

It will be hilarious if the GOP base starts believing that Trump appealed to African Americans and Hispanics based on these exit polls, and then think they can keep doing the same thing, and then shoot themselves in the foot further in the future.

[Angrie]

So using the numbers that have been released on vote by race and vote by education for whites, I tried to extrapolate out the exit poll top line. I had to fill in a few blanks not released, but what I got was:

Clinton 47.6
Trump 45.9

To come out with that, the things I had to fill in were the proportion of College educated to non-college educated whites out of the 70% of the electorate that is supposedly white. So I assumed the same proportions as in 2012 (57% of white voters were non-college educated and 43% of them were college educated).

Also since no numbers for Asian and Other voters Clinton-Trump split were released, I assumed they split the same 65%-27% in favor of Clinton that the exit polls have for Latinos.

[Angrie]

That non-college whites margin at R+36 is hard to believe.  If that's somehow not a typo, then we will be up late tonight.

If accurate, it means it makes a big difference what proportion of the white vote is college educated and what proportion of it is not. A few points up or down on that in either direction in comparison to 2012 could make a quite significant difference.

[Angrie]

Trump at 78% of the PV!!

I think that we can all agree that he has nowhere to go but down from that... That is all from eastern rural Kentucky, lol!

[Angrie]

Clinton up 49-48 in Allen County Indiana (Fort Wayne). Romney beat Obama 57-41 there.

[Angrie]

GA exit looks surprisingly close!

Men 57-38 Trump
Women 54-41 Clinton

But 55% of the electorate is women, so...

[Angrie]

VA exit: women 57-38 Clinton, men 49-44 Trump. Women 53% of the electorate.

[Angrie]

Exit poll link for Morden and anyone else who can't find them -

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

[Angrie]

There are all sorts of consequences of this that will ramify into all corners of the world in ways we cannot yet foresee, with all sorts of unknown and potentially terrifying effects.

But New Hampshire is a 3000 vote race at the moment. And so, whichever way it ultimately goes, it seems that one consequence of a more pedestrian sort is that if there were any states that meet any definition as to what constituted a swing state in this election, New Hampshire must be among them.

[Angrie]

Progressives need to be FURIOUS. The Democratic Party needs to be torn to shreds and rebuilt from the bottom up with some BALLS.