New York
Long Island: Chances are that the GOP will try to regain a seat it never should have lost (NY-1) but although another competative race is likely, the chances are that they'll fail again... although they'll probably win it back when Bishop retires.
The other Long Island races will be pretty dull unless an incumbent retires...
NYC: I don't see any of these flipping any time soon. Could be some brutal primaries though.
Upstate: NY-27 has the potential to be competative although it depends what sort of record Higgins builds up in Congress. NY-29 was as close as it was because Kuhl had a messy divorce or something similer (can't remember exactly)... I don't think the Democrats will seriously target him though (it's very much a Republican district). Still, stranger things have happend.
Another suprisingly close district was NY-26... I'm not sure why. Can anyone who knows the district (Buffalo/Rochester suburbs by the look of it) tell me why?
Most districts in Upstate NY could become fairly competative if the incumbent retires.
I don't see Bishop retiring any time soon. Also Long Island as a whole has been trending leftward over the past 15 years, so even when Bishop retires it probably will stay in Dem hands. district 2, Isreal will hold it till he retires will stay in Dem hands after. District 3 unfortunley King will hold it till he retires, could flip when he does retire. Dostrict 4 McCarthy will hold it till she retires, most likley will stay in Dem hands after. District 5. Ackermam just won by 43%, what do you think??? STRONG STRONG Dem for a very long time
No, I agree with Al. If not for the stupidity of Grucci, NY-1 would be in GOP hands. It's the most conservative district on the island. However, I do agree with you that Bishop isn't going anywhere, and it's really his seat to lose. Districts 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all holds until the incumbant retires at least. We will see what the demographics look like when they retire or move on.
I helped voted Grucci out:). I was @ Stony Brook at the time, and lived on campus so I voted there & voted for Bishop back in 02. District 1 is the most conservative district on the Island, and Grucci did blow it for himself, but much like the rest of the Island, the district as a whole is moving leftward. 5 will be safe dem till we are both long dead (even if they take out the Queens portion, the Nassau portion of district 5 is also heavily dem). 2,3,4 are holds till at least retirement. 3 (my district) might be the most vulnerable after the incumbents retire depending on how much the overall leftward swing continues. not that 3 would automatically become a Dem pickup when King retires, but it probably has a better chance of flpping than districts 2 & 4, and nothing is going to make 5 flip
