Ceiling for both parties is 52 (though Republicans are far more likely to hit that ceiling than Democrats), single most probable outcome is 51R-49D (R flip 2 of WV OH MT, or R flip all three and D flip TX).
Most likely D hold scenario, second most probable outcome overall, is losing WV, holding OH and MT, and not flipping TX. This is what the party should be strategizing for.
I don't get this claim, Republicans have huge upside if they run strongly in the presidential race and their downside is if anything still improving on where they are now.
