Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[ProgressiveModerate]

Detailed calculations.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just realize that in the early 2010s era, this map would’ve been such an R Gerry (albiet a weak one), with districts 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 all going to Romney despite Obama’s relatively comfortable win in the state

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just realize that in the early 2010s era, this map would’ve been such an R Gerry (albiet a weak one), with districts 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 all going to Romney despite Obama’s relatively comfortable win in the state

didn’t obama do better than clinton in 8 though? pretty sure it would be 4-4

Actually you might be right. I got R + 0.49 for my 2012 calculations but I realized I messed up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't understand why all the forum dems are upset about Boebert retaining a safe district...  You do realize that having people like Boebert, MTG, and Gaetz be the face of the Republican Party is a GOOD thing for Dems right?  They are crazy and awful but they repel voters in swing districts from the GOP.  And why does it matter if some less crazy Republican replaced her?  they'd vote the exact same way once they get into office.

Boebert is not as good for the party as a 6th D seat would be.

Tbf, making CO-3 D leaning would be hard without screwing up a lot of things; you’d need to stretch the 3rd district into Boulder. It would be a pretty clear D mander, and CO used a commission so that would never happen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Detailed partisanship calculations for state senate districts. Biden was 1 seat away from a supermajority!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did the same for state House:



2016 Pres: 35D - 30R
2016 Sen: 36D - 29R
2018 Gov: 40D - 25R
2020 Sen: 39D - 26R
2020 Pres: 44D - 21R

[ProgressiveModerate]

This new map is slightly better for Dems than the original map, but not by much. The original map averaged 5.14D - 2.86R, while this map is 5.19D - 2.81R. The big difference is the competitiveness jumps up from 20.13 to 30.07.

The 2020n results by district are:

1: Biden + 61.27
2: Biden + 27.62
3: Trump + 4.37
4: Trump + 8.27
5: Trump + 10.19
6: Biden + 24.37
7: Biden + 12.12
8: Biden + 4.81

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe nationally the Democrats realize they'll lose the House in 2022 and are planning redistricting for 2024 and beyond...?

Then why not just go with an  8-0 or 7-1 now that is more likely to hold into 2024 instead of relying on trends.