The 2020 election if only Clinton and Trump 2016 voters were allowed to vote

[Tekken_Guy]

What would the 2020 election look like if only people who voted for the two main candidates in 2016 were allowed to vote?

[Pres Mike]

Trump wins, probably the same result in the electoral college.

In 2016, Hillary got 48% of the vote and Trump got 46%

In 2020, Biden got 51% and Trump got 47%

Biden's victory came from people who voted third party or stayed home in 2016 because "emails". Primarily the latter.

The number of Trump-Biden voters is practically non-exisitant.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump wins, probably the same result in the electoral college.

In 2016, Hillary got 48% of the vote and Trump got 46%

In 2020, Biden got 51% and Trump got 47%

Biden's victory came from people who voted third party or stayed home in 2016 because "emails". Primarily the latter.

The number of Trump-Biden voters is practically non-exisitant.

Did I get something wrong? I thought at least 20% of Obama-Trump voters went back to Biden?

[Mr. Smith]

Trump wins, probably the same result in the electoral college.

In 2016, Hillary got 48% of the vote and Trump got 46%

In 2020, Biden got 51% and Trump got 47%

Biden's victory came from people who voted third party or stayed home in 2016 because "emails". Primarily the latter.

The number of Trump-Biden voters is practically non-exisitant.

You're forgetting the number of voters that were Romney- almost Clinton voters out there, little different from actual Romney-Clinton voters except they held nose for Trump in one more GOP vote.  Probably many of those ditched in 2018 and were solidly for Biden.

[Vosem]

Interestingly it looks like it didn't make a difference; adding the first two groups, or the second two groups, gives you numbers not that different from the 'total'.

(If only people who voted in 2018 were permitted to vote, Biden would've won by a little over 8 points, actually almost exactly replicating the 2018 performance. If only people who did not vote in 2018 were permitted to vote, Trump would've won the NPV outright by 2 points and won the election very comfortably. But 2016 actually isn't a very important dividing line.)

[Skill and Chance]

Interestingly it looks like it didn't make a difference; adding the first two groups, or the second two groups, gives you numbers not that different from the 'total'.

(If only people who voted in 2018 were permitted to vote, Biden would've won by a little over 8 points, actually almost exactly replicating the 2018 performance. If only people who did not vote in 2018 were permitted to vote, Trump would've won the NPV outright by 2 points and won the election very comfortably. But 2016 actually isn't a very important dividing line.)

Hmmm... this kind of goes against the CW that Trump brings a bunch of supporters out who otherwise wouldn't vote.