VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[MT Treasurer]

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.

[MT Treasurer]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

It does start to effect even a knowledgeable watcher when like 75% of the vote is in and the Republican has a spread of 3%. 

I remember Newt Gingrich and even John King and Anderson Cooper in 2014 saying that Gillespie still had a chance even after Warner had taken the lead, lol. Either way, you'd think that most pundits would be aware of the counting biases of most states, but apparently not. So yeah, overreactions are basically guaranteed.

Btw: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe NJ also has a Republican counting bias. Don't be surprised if Guadagno is leading in the early count.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Ah, I see. Totally agree with you that it's gone for Rs in federal races, I guess we'll find out soon enough if that's the case at the statewide level as well. I have a gut feeling that Ds will do better than expected in the HoD races, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Based on the exits this is shaping up to be a very bad night for the GOP in general. We'll see what happens, though. Exit polls aren't always reliable, though I'd be shocked if Gillespie somehow managed to win.

[MT Treasurer]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

I think this counts, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2013

[MT Treasurer]

Gillespie underperforming badly in Stafford and Hanover, but little is in.

[MT Treasurer]

Hopefully this ends the "Republicans always outperform the polling average in VA" nonsense.

[MT Treasurer]

I regret making a rating change from Likely D to Lean D in this race yesterday.

I regret buying that this race was ever anything other than Safe D.

Also pretty devastating result for the GOP in the HoD.

[MT Treasurer]

Vogel is Winning Virginia Beach by 10 points!

Vogel is definitely overperforming Gillespie in these key areas

Not nearly enough for her to win, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty unbelievable when you consider that Gillespie managed to win Loudoun (narrowly) three years ago.

[MT Treasurer]

The Next Republican running in a swing state or leaning dem state should just tie himself to Bush 24/7 and their policies are similar to Bush not Trump. Bush is popular now

...No.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Don't get too cocky, Moore could very well lose.

[MT Treasurer]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Yeah, the swings we saw in 2016 were definitely not a "one-time thing".

[MT Treasurer]

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Ah, I see. Totally agree with you that it's gone for Rs in federal races, I guess we'll find out soon enough if that's the case at the statewide level as well. I have a gut feeling that Ds will do better than expected in the HoD races, though.

And the answer couldn't have been clearer.