Good for Presidential numbers, but too Republican downballot to be a good measure of the Senate race, IMO.
Yeah, you're right. How about Craighead or Greene county?
Yeah, either of those seem to be decent. AR is a hard state for this. Ideally the bellwhether would be in CD1 or CD2, as those should be fairly neutral areas.
What I will be looking at for Arkansas will be the margin in Washington/Benton County, and vote percentage in counties that Blanche won. That will give you good indication of what is happening.
