2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The CBS.YouGov poll is 73% age 45 and over (2018 exits were 65%) and 42% conservative (2018 was 36%).

I just looked back to 2014, and even then, 45 and older was about 65% too. 73% would be a total collapse of the young/millennial vote. Like *super* collapse.

Which means if Rs are only +2 in that scenario, not a great look for them.

There could be other factors that end up cancelling the age balance out, but yeah, not a sign of a major Republican wave, at minimum.

[Minnesota Mike]

NBC just polled me for their next national poll

Did they ask any PA specific questions or just national stuff?

[wbrocks67]

NBC just polled me for their next national poll

Did they ask any PA specific questions or just national stuff?

Just national. Wasn't sure who it was for at first, she just said they were doing a political poll for research, no name or anything (I think NBC still uses Hart these days?) so I figured it may be a PA poll. But then she mentioned it was for national purposes, and as she was reading the questions, I was trying to think of which outlet typically used them. She then revealed it was for NBC at the end.

They did ask like "how would you rate how your representative, legislature, governor are doing, etc" but it was all generic questions, nothing specific.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

Having the GOP up only 2% when abortion is issue #7 and 70% think the economy is sh**t isn’t the good news for the GOP you think it is.

[Devils30]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/16/blue-state-democrats-midterms-oregon

The GOP gaslighting continues. Does anyone really think NY-17 is in play after NY-19 this summer? I guess if the R+8 pollster in NY-19 did a poll here they can show it a dead heat.

I don't know what will happen but there's a significant chance GOP will waste a lot of money in seats they lose by 9%. Kraushaar thinks Dobbs can't matter in a blue state with abortion rights protected, look at MN-1 as well on this.

Also, some of these college graduates who were 20-24 years old when Obama won in 2008 are now entering their mid to late 30s and becoming high propensity voters for Ds.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/16/blue-state-democrats-midterms-oregon

The GOP gaslighting continues. Does anyone really think NY-17 is in play after NY-19 this summer? I guess if the R+8 pollster in NY-19 did a poll here they can show it a dead heat.

I don't know what will happen but there's a significant chance GOP will waste a lot of money in seats they lose by 9%. Kraushaar thinks Dobbs can't matter in a blue state with abortion rights protected, look at MN-1 as well on this.

Also, some of these college graduates who were 20-24 years old when Obama won in 2008 are now entering their mid to late 30s and becoming high propensity voters for Ds.

You are about this be proven so wrong it will be glorious.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/16/blue-state-democrats-midterms-oregon

The GOP gaslighting continues. Does anyone really think NY-17 is in play after NY-19 this summer? I guess if the R+8 pollster in NY-19 did a poll here they can show it a dead heat.

I don't know what will happen but there's a significant chance GOP will waste a lot of money in seats they lose by 9%. Kraushaar thinks Dobbs can't matter in a blue state with abortion rights protected, look at MN-1 as well on this.

Also, some of these college graduates who were 20-24 years old when Obama won in 2008 are now entering their mid to late 30s and becoming high propensity voters for Ds.

You are about this be proven so wrong it will be glorious.

Can you at least be less obviously gleeful about the possibility of impending doom that you believe to be a certainty? Even if you are right you should be horrified by that prospect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forumlurker since the Ukraine War has been a Doomer but before the Ukraine War he was a Michael Bennet avatar, he doesn't know that it's a 65/60 M D EC vote down from 80)75M, like most Rs they think down turnout means automatic benefits Rs no it doesn't it's the same 5 M vote difference we outnumber Rs because we represent 9 M votes around big metros of LA, CHi, Phil, Pitts, Dtw, MKE, Den, NY the 303 blue wall and DC Suburbs solidified VA and Vegas and Reno we outnumbered Rs

The only Edays since 2006 it wasn't 65/60 M D advantage was obviously, 2010/2014 we had 65/60 or 5 M more votes than Rs if you look at Eday results is 2006/2008/12/2016 we had 65)62M/2018/20 we won the PVI 80/75 M last time

That's why Evers, Shapiro and Sisolak, Pritzker, and Whitmer are all winning and we will win VA back in 24

[Brittain33]

Evidence for a slight D advantage:

Dobbs
Post-Dobbs special elections
Democratic legislative accomplishments
Selzer poll
Some GCB
High-propensity voters shifting D
GOP still living in 2020 with Trump

Evidence for a slight R advantage:

Midterm with a Dem President
Inflation
Rising gas prices
Pre-Dobbs special elections
Voter registration trends
Early vote data relative to 2020
Potential for polling to miss Republicans
Some GCB

What am I missing? You can make either case with the evidence.

[UncleSam]

Evidence for a slight D advantage:

Dobbs
Post-Dobbs special elections
Democratic legislative accomplishments
Selzer poll
Some GCB
High-propensity voters shifting D
GOP still living in 2020 with Trump

Evidence for a slight R advantage:

Midterm with a Dem President
Inflation
Rising gas prices
Pre-Dobbs special elections
Voter registration trends
Early vote data relative to 2020
Potential for polling to miss Republicans
Some GCB

What am I missing? You can make either case with the evidence.

Ngl the first list can really just be boiled down to the first two points + the high-propensity voters point. I wouldn't count a single poll in a single state as evidence of much of anything, and 'living in 2020 with Trump' is kind of laughable.

Now one point you didn't raise is how bad the candidate quality is on the R side, even if that is a bit played up on this forum. There is no doubt that better R candidates in PA, GA, and AZ would have made all of those races tougher for Ds.

Overall I do think this year will be somewhat R-leaning, probably R+3 or so in the congressional vote. But without Dobbs it was probably going to be like an R+7 shellacking, and Ds will hold probably 20-30 seats that they otherwise would've lost (alongside probably 2 or 3 senate seats imo).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Evidence for a slight D advantage:

Dobbs
Post-Dobbs special elections
Democratic legislative accomplishments
Selzer poll
Some GCB
High-propensity voters shifting D
GOP still living in 2020 with Trump

Evidence for a slight R advantage:

Midterm with a Dem President
Inflation
Rising gas prices
Pre-Dobbs special elections
Voter registration trends
Early vote data relative to 2020
Potential for polling to miss Republicans
Some GCB

What am I missing? You can make either case with the evidence.

Ngl the first list can really just be boiled down to the first two points + the high-propensity voters point. I wouldn't count a single poll in a single state as evidence of much of anything, and 'living in 2020 with Trump' is kind of laughable.

Now one point you didn't raise is how bad the candidate quality is on the R side, even if that is a big played up on this forum. There is no doubt that better R candidates in PA, GA, and AZ would have made all of those races tougher for Ds.

Overall I do think this year will be somewhat R-leaning, probably R+3 or so in the congressional vote. But without Dobbs it was probably going to be like an R+7 shellacking, and Ds will hold probably 20-30 seats that they otherwise would've lost (alongside probably 2 or 3 senate seats imo).

Well the consistent Dem GCB lead contrasts very much with 2010 and 1994.

[MillennialModerate]

Has The NY Times/Sienna poll been mentioned on here? That’s a catastrophic result for Dems and almost guarantees losing the Senate and the R’s gain maybe 20 seats or 25 in the house

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has The NY Times/Sienna poll been mentioned on here? That’s a catastrophic result for Dems and almost guarantees losing the Senate and the R’s gain maybe 20 seats or 25 in the house

Lol  take every poll with a grain of salt we are gonna win PA, AZ and GA that's 50 seats Rs aren't gaining 20/25 seats

The CBS poll had it 47/45 and Fox poll had it 44/41 don't take everything literally

[MillennialModerate]

Has The NY Times/Sienna poll been mentioned on here? That’s a catastrophic result for Dems and almost guarantees losing the Senate and the R’s gain maybe 20 seats or 25 in the house

Lol  take every poll with a grain of salt we are gonna win PA, AZ and GA that's 50 seats Rs aren't gaining 20/25 seats

You’re like a broken record

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Has The NY Times/Sienna poll been mentioned on here? That’s a catastrophic result for Dems and almost guarantees losing the Senate and the R’s gain maybe 20 seats or 25 in the house

Lol  take every poll with a grain of salt we are gonna win PA, AZ and GA that's 50 seats Rs aren't gaining 20/25 seats

You’re like a broken record

You are a Doomer you said we were gonna lose GA you were wrong I am not a Doomer  all the polls are in the Databases showing Ds leading in Senate races if you don't mind look

Is anyone else other than you getting excited about Rs netting 25 seats and us losing the  Senate, is wbooks freaking out about Rs leading in GCB no because we're all voting we have to wait til results are in

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Inflation Reduction Act didn't do much with inflation it was another stimulus bill

People are still getting stimulus checks at the state level and creating more inflation

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

This country can rot in hell.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

Lol nothing is more Atlas than a poll with a democrat at 43% in Iowa being a blue wave and getting more attention than this

[SnowLabrador]

https://fightforua.org/

If you want to escape this country, here's a way out. Fighting for Ukraine.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

This country can rot in hell.

If it is this bad in three weeks, I’m probably becoming an Independent and waiting for a reestablishment of some sort of progressive national organization. I would probably become a Democrat again the way so many left the GOP over Bush and rejoined during the 14-16 cycle.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

This country can rot in hell.

Let the country have a deep recession in 2023 with a Republican congress that will likely force the US to default on its debt.  Let the American people rue what they sow.

I’ll sit back and laugh while buying a bunch of stocks at very discounted prices.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

America is not gonna default on it's debt because social Security payments would stop Biden can mint 1T dollar coin if need be, that's why McConnell was forced to relent on the Debt Ceiling but Biden said that will be the last resort, and also Biden is up for reelection if there is a deep Recession it would hurt his chances to get reelected

You know why Social security checks won't stop they will have to back date every last payment and give the people what checks they missed from the time of the shutdown to shutdown end that would be 1200 *4 over 2200 no way is Govt gonna give people lump sums

[wbrocks67]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is waiting til after the Midterms to testify and Rs win Congress so he can come out and say I told you so but if Rs don't sweep Congress he is unlikely to testify that's why he replied and said the Eday was stolen