Tasmania 2014

[Frodo]

This is going to be brutal and unpleasant, but I suppose it will be some vague relief to get it out of the way.

Anyway, Labor have been in power for sixteen years and have spent the past three in coalition with the Greens. Labor's base in Tasmania hate the Greens. Certain extremely unpopular - I would also add bloody stupid and motivated more by mawkish sentiment than anything else - forestry policies have also been pursued, which has made matters significantly worse.

The election will be on the 15th of March. The Liberals will win a comfortable majority unless something bizarre happens. Labor will be back at some point in the not so distant future (as happened after the heavy defeat of 1992).

Tasmania uses PR (based on federal electoral divisions) in state elections. All three party leaders have seats in the same division (Franklin: basically outer Hobart), hilariously enough. Currently Labor and the Liberals have ten seats a piece and the Greens five. Currently all divisions are 2-2-1.

Historically polling for state elections in Tasmania has underestimated Labor and overestimated the Greens.

That will do for now.

I'm confused now -I thought the parliamentary election in Tasmania isn't until May 17.   Or is that only the latest possible date the election could be held?

[Frodo]

Poll points to Tasmanian Liberals win

Source AAP
UPDATED 6:40 PM - 13 FEB 2014

Tasmania looks set to have a majority Liberal government on March 15, according to the first independent poll published since the state election was called.

The EMRS poll published on Thursday puts Liberal support at 50 per cent to Labor's 23 and the Greens' 17 when undecided voters are excluded.

With the 23 per cent yet to make up their minds, Premier Lara Giddings' government polls just 16 per cent to the Liberals' 39 and Greens' 14.

Opposition leader Will Hodgman is preferred premier with 48 per cent, while Ms Giddings is polling just 21 and Greens leader Nick McKim 13.

The poll is the first since Ms Giddings announced her party's power-sharing arrangement with the Greens was over.

But it was taken before the premier, who is also treasurer, announced a $450 million budget blowout over the next four years.

[Frodo]

Liberals head for election whitewash as Labor faces being relegated to the state's third party

MATT SMITH
MERCURY
MARCH 07, 2014 12:02PM

THE number of Labor MPs in the Tasmanian Parliament could be halved in next week's state election, new polling shows.

A ReachTel poll of 2682 Tasmanians, carried out on Thursday night, shows the Will Hodgman-led Liberal Party is set for majority government.

The Labor Party could even be left with fewer seats than former stablemates the Greens, with polling suggesting Labor is likely to pick up just five or six seats while the Greens could secure between four and six.

Any hopes that Labor's stocks might have been boosted by its dramatic dumping of the Greens in January have evaporated.

The poll follows a Mercury Sky News people's forum at the Hobart Town Hall on Thursday night, which Ms Giddings won on points.

See full poll results here.

[Frodo]

The results so far, with 88% of the vote counted:

Liberals: 14
Labor: 6
Greens: 3