Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.
Then it doesn't exist. Most media probably won't abandon the horse-race narrative and even if the conventional wisdom becomes that Biden is likely to win, the kinds of voters preparing to place a check on his presidency would think twice (they were probably the ones doing the same thing in 2016) because of enduring superstitions about Trump being inevitable. If an elections forum like this is full of doomers w.r.t. Biden's chances, what do you think the even less informed general public is like?
It happened in 2016. Just because some media outlets report(ed) on potential pitfalls for the leading candidate didn't mean they weren't also saying, "Hillary/Biden could win Georgia/Texas/South Carolina!" Voters are actually be more sensitive to the latter, in my opinion, as the "horse race" narrative is baked in; deviations from that narrative are what actually catch the ear.
Also, to be clear, I still find Gideon the favorite. I'm just analyzing Collins's potential strength. I'm noticing a consistently nasty habit on here (not singling you out and not sure if it's happened in years past) of conflating any discussion of losing Republican candidates' chances with a belief that candidate can/will win or "doomerism" or "concern trolling." Maybe that's why everyone here is in hair-on-fire mode every time there's a Republican upset. Just needed to put that disclaimer in.
