Civiqs: Cruz +2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think this race is somewhere between this and the Gravis poll. If there was an election today, I think Cruz would win 52-46.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz is favored to win reelection, but I will say this, it wouldn't totally blow me to the far end of Mars if Beto won by a point. The heavy campaigning has not even started yet, and Beto is in good condition for it, Strong Lean R as of now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think this is complete fantasy, maybe a bit too dem friendly, but other polls today have showed us well within striking distance for a couple other statewide offices.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also what I am seeing on the ground, I see few Cruz signs and even in lean republican precincts are peppered with Beto signs. I have also seen several lawns with Beto or Allred signs and then they have signs for local Republicans for judge and state house and etc. My sis has also seen a F-250 with both a come and take it flag and a Beto sticker. While a little too friendly, I still think this is within the realm of sanity giving the current environment.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beto is not getting 70% of hispanics and Cruz won't be getting 14% of blacks, tame the numbers a bit and it should even out.