The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

Reports indicate that all three delegates in MI-12 have endorsed Obama.  As these are very sketchy reports, I'll keep them as Uncommitted for now.

[Erc]

Pennsylvania Primary

Closed Primary
187 Delegates
--103 by CD
--55 At-Large
--29 Unpledged

Voting will take place from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT.  This is a closed primary, so only registered Democrats can vote (though there are anecdotal reports of significant registration, even of Republicans, in the last few months).

Bonus delegates:  
For going so late in the season, Pennsylvania has received a 5% bonus in delegates, giving them 5 more district delegates and 2 more at-large delegates (these are incorporated into the totals below).

CD delegates:
3 for CDs: 9
4 for CDs: 5, 10, 16, 17, 19
5 for CDs: 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18
6 for CDs: 6
7 for CDs: 1, 7, 8, 13, 14
9 for CDs: 2

At-Large delegates:
35 At-Large
20 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Delegates: (15 Clinton - 5 Obama - 9 Uncommitted)
13 DNC members
11 Representatives
1 Senator
1 Governor
3 'Add-Ons' (selected June 7 by the State Democratic Committee)

(Note that Ed Rendell is both Governor and a former DNC chair---this does not mean, however, that he gets two votes at the convention).

[Erc]

Democrats Abroad Results were released today:

22 delegates (Each overseas delegate to the convention gets half a vote)

Obama: 6.5 votes (13 delegates)

Clinton: 3.5 votes (7 delegates)

2 superdelegates are still undecided.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/dems-abroad-slate-ready-for-denver/

So, no surprise changes at the Vancouver Convention.

[Erc]

Just for a little update on the whole Idaho situation:

The Idaho Democratic Party has posted a list of all delegates (along with addresses and telephone numbers, think you might be a little too open guys?) and candidate supported here: http://www.idaho-democrats.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/1165191
It appears Hillary actually did narrowly reach viability despite failing in Ada County, largely due to rounding (for example in a small county with 3 delegates where she gets a little under 20% she gets a delegate, thus 33.33% of the total) and overrepresentation of the rural counties. However it's very close. Out of 380 delegates, she has 58, thus only 2 away from losing viability. If 2 switch/don't show up, she will fail viability.

The convention is in June and by then there might be an overwhelming sentiment the race is over and it's time for Hillary to concede, thus influencing switchers, also if the state convention is in Boise that's a hell of a drive for the delegates from the outer rural areas, many might not bother showing, it's possible you might have a small county with about 20 Hillary supporters, no one really wanting to be a delegate but one being picked just because they need someone, and then that person doesn't bother. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of the Obama campaign implanting a few "Trojan horses". So for now, Hillary has viability, but it's far from guaranteed.

That applies only to her one at large delegate too. The two allocated by district are directly tied to the votes cast in each district. So she has at least two delegates no matter what, and that third is up in the air.

Upon looking it up, the convention is in Boise. That's as far as a 7 hour drive from places in northern Idaho.

Looking over what they have vs. my projections from February, the differences are:

CD 1:
I messed up in Valley County, and thought Clinton had achieved viability--in fact, she was one vote shy of it.  So, a swing of one delegate to Obama from Clinton.

The pdf has no results available for Lewis County.  Clinton won Lewis County, so she should have one delegate out of here.

Clinton still meets viability, with 15.8% of delegates.

CD 2:

The pdf has no results for Lincoln County, which Obama won---so he should have an additional delegate there.

In Blaine County, my results (and, mind you, the official caucus results on the ID Dem website, as well) had Clinton failing to meet viability by 2 votes, but she apparently won 2 delegates here.

In Power County, my results had her getting 21.8% of the two-way vote, not enough to win one of this county's two delegates.  However, she apparently did win one.  (No, there isn't a rule stating that you have to get a delegate if you made viability, as in Iowa---compare Fremont County, where she won 21.3% of the vote and did not get one of Fremont's two delegates).


If we trust their results for Blaine & Power Counties, and give the one delegate from Lincoln County to Obama, the final result for CD 2 is:

Obama 158
Clinton 28

Clinton has viability by 1 delegate, having 15.05% of delegates.  If I were Obama, I'd challenge the result in Power County---there's no way Clinton should have a delegate there.

In any event, more likely than not, one of the Clinton delegates won't show up and she'll fail to meet viability in CD 2.

If two Clinton delegates fail to show up, she loses viability statewide.



Although I'm extremely skeptical about the Power & Blaine County results, I can't go against a physical list of delegates.  Clinton regains viability in CD 2 and statewide, gaining two delegates from Obama.

New Result: 15 - 3 Obama.

[Erc]

Upon a closer inspection of the Idaho Delegate Selection Plan:

There is a period of recaucusing in Idaho, as in Iowa---voters supporting candidates that failed to meet viability may recaucus.  In Blaine County, Clinton was 2 votes short of viability, but there were 7 Edwards supporters and 28 'Uncommitted' supporters---if more than 15% of these went for Clinton upon recaucusing, she may have been able to gain viability.

"The allocation of National Delegates shall be determined by totaling the votes of all presidential preferences (and uncommitted status, if applicable) that are at or above the 15 percent threshold following the final recaucus for each county, and allocating the available delegates proportionately among them."


Power County is still inexplicable---there were 0 Edwards & 2 Uncommitted supporters.  Even if both of them recaucused to Clinton, she still shouldn't have gotten a delegate.


If we accept the Blaine result, Clinton should have statewide viability.  Only through shenanigans in Power County does she get viability in CD 2.

[Erc]

And, upon even closer reading, all of the discussion about viability is a bit moot, perhaps?

"Idaho is a caucus/convention state. Accordingly, delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated so as to fairly reflect the expressed presidential preference or uncommitted status of the caucus participants in each district. Therefore, the national convention delegates elected at the district level shall be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the caucus vote won in that district by each preference, except that preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates or alternates.  Percentages shall be determined at the County caucus level. (Rule 12.B.)  See Section III.A.2 and 3 for further details."

Even if Clinton doesn't have 15% of the delegates in Boise, she still broke 15% of the popular vote in each district & statewide, so I believe that entitles her to three delegates anyway, if I'm reading this correctly.

[Erc]

I read it as that's the case for the congressional districts but not the state convention. So she's guaranteed her 2 delegates from the districts, but not her state one if too many of her delegates don't  show up/switch.

You're right.

"a. At-large delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated among presidential preferences according to...the division of preferences among convention participants...
b. Preferences which have not attained a 15% threshold on a state-wide basis shall not be entitled to any at-large delegates."

But, as it stands right now, given that Clinton met viability in Blaine after recaucusing, she should have viability statewide.  Of course, if three Clinton delegates fail to show up, she loses viability (or, if Obama challenges the Power County results [which appears unlikely as there's only a 10-day window to do so which has probably already passed], she loses statewide viability if one person fails to show up).

So, barring no-shows or defections (which can't be counted on), Clinton should pick up 3 delegates here.

[Erc]

Updated with (very) tentative PA results.

Obama's lead drops by 24, but much of that is due to the introduction of PA's superdelegates into the official count.

[Erc]

The next event of note are the Iowa Congressional District Conventions, to be held this Saturday, April 26.

Iowa, the first state in the Union to vote this year, will finally choose the first of its delegates to Denver this Saturday.

The main question to be answered at these conventions is "What happens to Edwards' support?"  He did place second statewide in January, though much of his support eroded (almost exclusively to Obama) at last month's County Conventions.  Right now, he still has enough support to retain 6 delegates (3 At-Large and 3 CD), but can he hold onto them? Or, will Clinton and/or Obama supporters vote for Edwards tactically to ensure he meets viability and depriving the other candidate of delegates---making Edwards' support increase?

My original discussion on these conventions can be found here and here, earlier in this thread.

In more recent news....it appears that Clinton has learned her lesson from the embarassing County Conventions (where Edwards lost more than half of his support, all to Obama---even causing a loss of one Clinton delegate in CD 5), and is making a serious play for Edwards supporters.

Source

There are five conventions throughout the state, in Dubuque, Mount Vernon, West Des Moines, Boone, and Council Bluffs.  Registration begins at 8 AM, and the Conventions themselves begin at 9 AM Central.

[Erc]

Inspired by a suggestion in another thread:

Would the race be significantly different if delegates were simply assigned proportionally statewide?  (No district delegates, no pledged PLEOs, just At-Large delegates taking their place):

The answer: Obama's the one who's actually, on net, been getting the short end of the stick.

Excluding TX & IA from consideration (due to strange caucus systems), his pledged delegat lead would be 28 delegates larger under a simpler proportional system.

Map of where each candidate has benefited from the current system:

(Grey represents Not Yet Voted / No Advantage / TX / IA / FL / MI)

Obama has gotten an advantage out of the system in OH & PA, yes, but Clinton made equally large gains in places like NY & AL, and others---and the net effect is for Clinton.

[Erc]

Today's Saturday, which means it's Convention Day!

New Mexico chooses one Add-On today at the State Central Committee meeting.

New Hampshire has its State Convention today, where 1 Add-On will be selected by open ballot by majority vote, by the District-level delegates.  As these were split 6-6-2 Clinton-Obama-Edwards, this should be a fun vote (though, more likely than not, it will be determined by no-shows).

Iowa, as mentioned previously, is having its Congressional District Conventions today, finally picking the first of its delegates to Denver.  Reports from the last few days indicate that the sort of tactical voting I predicted may be happening---Clinton may be lending support to Edwards to allow him to reach viability in CDs 1 and 4 (good job, Clinton campaign!).  In CDs 2, 3, and 5, Edwards appears to have viability, though it is closest in CD 5.  Obama would be well-advised to help Edwards out in CD 5 if he looks shaky.

Conventions began at 9 AM Central, with certain conventions allowing stragglers through to 11 AM, so we likely won't know results for a few hours yet.

[Erc]

It looks like the Edwards folks stuck together, and the Clinton camp was able to vote tactically to make him reach viability in CD 1.  In CD 4 (where the required margin was higher), there was no such luck and Edwards failed to reach viability.

Net effect of this on the delegate count:

Obama loses one, Edwards gains one, due to tactical voting.

Good job Clinton campaign.  Shame you lost 10 delegates here last month, though...

[Erc]

With today's endorsement by William George (D-PA) for Clinton, Clinton now has more superdelegate endorsements in the states that have already voted than there are uncommitted superdelegates remaining (240 - 238).

[Erc]

Colorado    Obama 35 Clinton 20/Obama 36 Clinton 19
American Samoa    Clinton 2 Obama 1/Clinton 1.5 Obama1.5
Louisiana    Obama 34 Clinton 22/Obama 33 Clinton 23
Democrats Abroad    Obama 4.5 Clinton 2.5/Obama 5 Clinton 2

California    Clinton 204 Obama 166
Ohio    Clinton 74 Obama 67

Colorado has a long caucus/convention process, in which the final allocation of delegates will not be clear until May 17.  The last good estimate I had had Obama 35 - Clinton 20.  The Green Papers now estimates 36-19, based on results from the County Conventions (which I was never able to find, myself), so I will change my results.

American Samoa:  Although I've seen sources say Clinton 2 - Obama 1, that should not be the final result, and I suspect all reports to that effect are people who don't understand the half-delegate concept.  Ditto with Democrats Abroad.

Louisiana:  Earlier reports had indicated 34 - 22, but 33 - 23 appears to be correct.  If you can find a source contradicting that, let me know.

California: You appear to be right on this count...it appears that Clinton broke 62.5% in CD 51, after all, and gained a delegate from Obama here.

Ohio:  The discrepancy, yet again, appears to be over that pesky CD 1 (a point raised earlier in this thread).  Last I checked, Obama still didn't have enough to make the margin 3 - 1...but it now appears, on the strength of late-arriving absentee ballots, that Obama has broken 62.5%.


Thanks for the corrections, xzcyhj...if you can find a source for your LA numbers, let me know.

[Erc]

If the Democrats had allocated delegates in the same manner as the Republicans (with some states winner-takes-all, etc.), how would the race look now?

[Some of these are estimates, MI/FL are dealt with in the Republican manner (penalized by half), many delegates listed for a candidate would still be officially unpledged (the At-Large NY & IL delegations, for example)]

Surprisingly, Clinton isn't in the lead:

Obama: 987
Clinton: 945
Edwards: 9
Yet to Vote: 237
Superdelegates: 126

To Win: 1153.

Note that Obama's lead is entirely due to his razor-thin margins of victory in Connecticut and Missouri, which bagged him 79 delegates.

Assuming a similar breakdown of superdelegates as the current Democratic lineup (not necessarily a good assumption:  superdelegates are spread evenly, usually 3 per state, so small states are overrepresented in the Republican system):

After Puerto Rico (assuming Clinton doesn't break 2/3rds there), one would expect:

Obama 1155
Clinton 1095
Edwards 9
Uncommitted 45

...due to the lower number of Superdelegates, Obama is able to clinch the nomination on the last day of primaries.

[Erc]

Using Republican formulas as if they were for the Democrats (i.e. giving California a huge bonus for voting for Kerry, giving Massachusetts 2 bonus delegates for having two Democratic Senators, etc.).

[Erc]

It's Saturday, so it's Convention Day!

Guam chooses its 8 half-delegates to the Convention today.  Incomplete results suggest Clinton and Obama will split them evenly, 4-4.

South Carolina and Louisiana have their State Conventions today, each choosing 1 'Add-On.'  South Carolina has chosen Inez Tenenbaum, an Obama supporter, as their Add-On.

Colorado's 6th Congressional District is having its Convention today, choosing 5 delegates to the National Convention.  5 are to be chosen...it is expected that 3 will be for Obama and 2 for Clinton.

[Erc]

LA numbers   Obama 33 Clinton23

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/LA-D.phtml
http://www.lademo.org/

...which confirms what I already had.  Thanks.

[Erc]

Until I see a good reason why it isn't 1.5-1.5 (or an actual list of delegates with support listed for each), I will not be changing AS to 2-1.

As for the Clinton supporters in Obama districts...the vast majority of black Congressmen who have endorsed Hillary would fall under that category, I'd assume.

Only 6 Senators/Governors/Representatives in primary states have endorsed Clinton despite both their district and their state voting for Obama:
Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D-DE)
Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Tammy Baldwin (WI-2)
Emanuel Cleaver (MO-5)
Dutch Ruppersberger (MD-2)

Half of these were from Maryland...

Plenty of Representatives had Clinton lose their district but win the state, or vice versa, but they can claim an out that way...or were from caucus states, which might not be seen as truly democratic.

[Erc]

With the new Illinois add-ons selected, the current superdelegate count (over all states) is:

Clinton 268.5
Uncommitted 267.5
Obama 260

Hillary has now won more superdelegates than there are remaining, across all states.

An analysis of how many of these superdelegates Hillary will actually have to win will be forthcoming after we have a good idea of the delegate numbers out of IN & NC tonight.

[Erc]

I actually calculated a Hillary lead of 7.5 among superdelegates with them thrown in.

A difference of one from what I have...it's entirely possible that I missed one Obama delegate somewhere (I do a thorough check once every couple weeks, which will catch any serious mistakes I made).

[Erc]

Indiana

'Open' Primary
85 Delegates
--47 by CD
--25 At-Large
--13 Unpledged

Polls close at 6 PM local---meaning mainly 6 PM EDT, though with a few on the Illinois border closing at 7 PM EDT.  Therefore, we likely won't get any results reported until 7 PM, though we should get a good influx of results right after 7 PM.

This is an Open Primary---anyone may decide to vote in the Democratic Primary if they choose, and are considered to be Democrats once they vote.  However, other voters may 'challenge' them if they believe they are not adherents of the party, filling out an affadavit to the effect that they have not voted in Democratic primaries in the past.  If the challengee agrees to fill out a counter-affadavit, asserting that they intend to vote for 'a majority of the candidates of the Democratic Party in the next General Election,' they are permitted to vote in the Primary.

CD Breakdown:
4 for CDs: 3, 4, 5
5 for CDs: 6
6 for CDs: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9

At-Large Breakdown:
16 At-Large
9 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Breakdown:
5 DNC Members
1 Senator
5 Representatives
1 Distinguished Party Leader (Joe Andrew)
1 'Add-On' (selected June 21, State Convention)
 
Indiana received a 10% bonus to its delegates for holding a May primary.

North Carolina

Half-Open Primary
134 Delegates
--77 by CD
--38 At-Large
--19 Unpledged

Polls close throughout most of the state at 7:30 PM EDT.  Certain counties may have decided not to close until 8:30 PM EDT, but it is quite likely that the media will begin to report results at 7:30 (as few places utilize the 8:30 closing option).

CD Breakdown:
4 for CDs: 3
5 for CDs: 5, 6, 8, 10
6 for CDs: 1, 2, 7, 9, 11
7 for CDs: 12, 13
9 for CDs: 4

At-Large Breakdown:
26 At-Large
12 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Breakdown:
9 DNC Members
7 Representatives
1 Governor
2 'Add-Ons' (selected at June 21 State Convention)

[Erc]

Preliminary IN & NC results added.

Looks like Obama 66-49 in NC, Clinton 38-34 in IN.


Total Delegate Counts (including all superdelegates):

Obama 1852
Clinton 1694.5

How does Clinton win, from here?

First, she needs to do well in the remaining contests.  Let's assume (for the sake of argument) that Clinton gets big wins (2/3 of the vote) in WV, KY, and PR, and suffers narrow losses in OR, MT, and SD.  She'll pick up 128 delegates to Obama's 89, narrowing the gap by 39 delegates.

On June 3 (neglecting any superdelegate endorsements between now and then), the delegate count would then be:

Obama: 1941
Clinton: 1822.5
Uncommitted: 266.5
Edwards: 19

Remember, 2025 is the magic number...so Obama would only need 84 of the Uncommitted or Edwards delegates to win.

Clinton would need 70.9% of remaining Superdelegates (I include the 19 Edwards supporters in this number) in order to win the nomination.

If things break her way in MI/FL, this becomes easier. 
Under a 'Half-Nelson' plan (delegation seated but with half-votes), she'd only need 63.9% of the superdelegates.
If the delegations are fully seated, but with MI Uncommitted voting for Obama, she'd need only  58.0% of the superdelegates.
If the delegations are fully seated, and with 30 of the MI Uncommitted remaining truly Uncommitted, she'd need only 50.5% of the superdelegates (including the 30 MI Uncommitted as superdelegates).

We'll learn more about MI/FL at the end of the month.

Is Hillary completely out?  No, a win is not mathematically impossible for her.  But, barring any major scandal that would force the remaining superdelegates in her favor by a 7-3 margin, she won't be able to pull it off.

[Erc]

With today's wave of endorsements, Obama is now ahead of Clinton in total superdelegate endorsements, and only one half-delegate behind Clinton in superdelegates from states already voted.

Clinton now needs 74.3% of remaining superdelegates to win, barring a resolution in her favor in MI & FL, which is up about 4% from just after IN/NC.

[Erc]

Something worth noting: I'm currently projecting Hillary to win 19 of West Virginia's 28 delegates. That's about 68%...less than what Hillary needs here. Hillary will actually be FURTHER behind after West Virginia.

The current numbers are already assuming a "good scenario" for Hillary in the remaining states, to wit:

WV: 19 - 9
KY: 33 - 18
OR: 25 - 27
SD: 7 - 8
MT: 7 - 9
PR: 37 - 18.

So nothing will change about the number listed in the thread title if she does win 19 - 9.

Of all delegates (pledged and unpledged) remaining, she needs to win 66.8%, so a 19 - 9 win actually keeps her on track there.  But considering her likely losses in OR/SD/MT, she won't win   more than 59% of the remaining pledged delegates...hence the higher 76.3% of remaining unpledged/Edwards delegates that she has to win.