Assuming no exit polls, predict the demographic groups Trump v Biden

[Suburbia]

Does Biden perform better with white men than Clinton 2016 or Obama 2012, does Trump perform better with black women?

[Alben Barkley]

Biden is almost certainly going to do better with white men than Clinton 2016. Trump didn't really do any better with them than Romney as it was -- both got 62%, though Hillary got 31% as opposed to Obama's 35%. Since I expect Biden to do significantly better with college educated white men in particular, if not win them outright, I think he'll outdo both.

I'm assuming white women will continue to trend against the GOP and Trump in particular, and I expect him to lose the group so obviously Biden will do better than Hillary with them. Or Obama, who also lost them both in 2012 and 2008.

I do not expect Trump to do better than he did against Hillary with black women or men. I expect Biden to get somewhere in between Hillary and Obama's margins with them.

Latino vote will be interesting. Trump's margins with Latinos were not as significant an improvement over Romney as people have claimed. He did a couple points better with the women and actually a point worse with the men, interestingly, according to the exit polls. Though again, Hillary did a few points worse with both, so the margins were slightly smaller. Honestly this seems to have more to do with third party vote than anything, and since I don't expect that to be as significant this time, I assume Trump's gonna more or less regress to Romney's Latino numbers. If not do slightly worse.

[Roblox]

If the election were held today….

White college educated: Biden 53-45
White no college:Trump 65-34
African American: Biden 89-10
Hispanic: Biden 67-31

[Bomster]

Biden is almost certainly going to do better with white men than Clinton 2016. Trump didn't really do any better with them than Romney as it was -- both got 62%, though Hillary got 31% as opposed to Obama's 35%. Since I expect Biden to do significantly better with college educated white men in particular, if not win them outright, I think he'll outdo both.

I'm assuming white women will continue to trend against the GOP and Trump in particular, and I expect him to lose the group so obviously Biden will do better than Hillary with them. Or Obama, who also lost them both in 2012 and 2008.

I do not expect Trump to do better than he did against Hillary with black women or men. I expect Biden to get somewhere in between Hillary and Obama's margins with them.

Latino vote will be interesting. Trump's margins with Latinos were not as significant an improvement over Romney as people have claimed. He did a couple points better with the women and actually a point worse with the men, interestingly, according to the exit polls. Though again, Hillary did a few points worse with both, so the margins were slightly smaller. Honestly this seems to have more to do with third party vote than anything, and since I don't expect that to be as significant this time, I assume Trump's gonna more or less regress to Romney's Latino numbers. If not do slightly worse.

Bold to assume trump won't improve his numbers among whites. All of his blatantly racist rhetoric might pull him some new support from some white nonvoters for all we know.

[Non Swing Voter]

If the election were held today….

White college educated: Biden 53-45
White no college:Trump 65-34
African American: Biden 89-10
Hispanic: Biden 67-31

This seems right.  I think Biden possibly does a bit better with college educated whites though, maybe 55-43.

[Camaro33]

White college educated: Biden 50-48
White no college:Trump 66-31
African American: Biden 89-10
Hispanic: Biden 65-32

[James Monroe]

White college educated: Biden 54-44
White no college:Trump 62-34
African American: Biden 92-8
Hispanic: Biden 66-33

[Kamala's side hoe]

Asians vote Dem by a higher margin than Latinos. The CNN 2016 exit polls say both groups favored Hillary over Trump by 38 points.

[Agafin]

If the election were held today, here's how I think the various demographic groups would vote:

                            Biden(D) Trump(R)
Men     (48%)           45%        52%
Women(52%)           57%        42%

18-29   (16%)          60%        36%
30-44   (24%)          54%        44%
45-64   (35%)          47%        52%
65+      (25%)          49%        50%

White   (69%)          40%        58%
Latino   (12%)         68%        30%
Black    (12%)         89%        10%
Asian    ( 4%)          70%        27%
0ther    ( 3%)          59%        38%

[Yoda]

White college educated: Biden 50-48

WAAAAAAAY too small a margin. Dems have been crushing this demographic since trump's been in office.

[Camaro33]

White college educated: Biden 50-48

WAAAAAAAY too small a margin. Dems have been crushing this demographic since trump's been in office.

I'm predicting the college white swing this election to be less than the midterms. My numbers still represent a substantial Biden swing. I doubt any group swings more than 5 points.

[Suburbia]

If the election were held today, here's how I think the various demographic groups would vote:

                            Biden(D) Trump(R)
Men     (48%)           45%        52%
Women(52%)           57%        42%

18-29   (16%)          60%        36%
30-44   (24%)          54%        44%
45-64   (35%)          47%        52%
65+      (25%)          49%        50%

White   (69%)          40%        58%
Latino   (12%)         68%        30%
Black    (12%)         89%        10%
Asian    ( 4%)          70%        27%
0ther    ( 3%)          59%        38%

I don't know if Trump could get 10 percent or more of the black vote. It would anger Sharpton, Rye, etc.

[Camaro33]

If the election were held today, here's how I think the various demographic groups would vote:

                            Biden(D) Trump(R)
Men     (48%)           45%        52%
Women(52%)           57%        42%

18-29   (16%)          60%        36%
30-44   (24%)          54%        44%
45-64   (35%)          47%        52%
65+      (25%)          49%        50%

White   (69%)          40%        58%
Latino   (12%)         68%        30%
Black    (12%)         89%        10%
Asian    ( 4%)          70%        27%
0ther    ( 3%)          59%        38%

I don't know if Trump could get 10 percent or more of the black vote. It would anger Sharpton, Rye, etc.

Mathematically that equates to Biden 51.01% to Trump 47.05%. Reasonable margin and outcome, but I doubt third party voting decreases this much to end up at under 2% in our current environment. These results exactly (I mean +/- 0.1% all around) hit 2012 results.

[Dr. MB]

White college educated: Trump 49-48
White no college: Biden 51-44
African American: Biden 55-42
Hispanic: Trump 68-12-10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Females outnumber males 55 to 45 and minorities are in the SW and upper midwest and NE, that's all the Dems need to solidify the EC map 278 to 413

[Kamala's side hoe]

AP (Fox) vs Edison (NBC/CNN)- the AP exit poll sample is slightly more female, significantly older, significantly whiter, and less educated overall than the Edison sample. The Atlas consensus seemed to be that AP was slightly more accurate than Edison.

Edison has larger 18-29 and 30-44 age cohorts, and their racial crosstabs are closer to the actual US population. The Edison exit poll showed stronger Trump support among whites, blacks, and Asians (but not Latinos), among voters aged 30-44, and college graduates (but not postgrads). It looks like Edison picked up a lot of current undergraduate students, judging from the size of the age 18-29 and "some college, no degree" groups.


https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

AP Votecast:
Gender
Men (47%)   46%   52%
Women (53%)   55%   44%
Other (<1%)   70%   24%

Age
18-29 (13%)   61%   36%
30-44 (23%)   54%   43%
45-64 (36%)   48%   51%
65+   (28%)   48%   51%

Race/Ethnicity
White (74%)   43%   55%
Black (11%)   90%   8%
Latino (9%)   63%   35%
Asian (2%)   70%   28%
AIAN   (<1%)   46%   52%
NHPI   (<1%)   35%   59%
Other (3%)   51%   44%

Education
High school or less   (27%)   46%   52%
Some college             (34%)   48%   50%
College graduate   (25%)   56%   42%
Postgraduate study   (15%)   58%   40%



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

NBC/CNN:
Gender
Men (48%)   45%   53%
Women (52%)   57%   42%

Age
18-29 (17%)   60%   36%
30-44 (23%)   52%   46%
45-64 (38%)   49%   50%
65+   (22%)   47%   52%

Race/Ethnicity
White (67%)   41%   58%
Black (13%)   87%   12%
Latino (13%)   65%   32%
Asian (4%)   61%   34%
Other (4%)   55%   41%

Education
High school or less   (19%)   46%   52%
Some college             (23%)   51%   47%
Associate's degree     (16%)       47% 50%
College graduate   (27%)   51%   47%
Postgraduate study   (15%)   62%   37%

[Agafin]

If the election were held today, here's how I think the various demographic groups would vote:

                            Biden(D) Trump(R)
Men     (48%)           45%        52%
Women(52%)           57%        42%

18-29   (16%)          60%        36%
30-44   (24%)          54%        44%
45-64   (35%)          47%        52%
65+      (25%)          49%        50%

White   (69%)          40%        58%
Latino   (12%)         68%        30%
Black    (12%)         89%        10%
Asian    ( 4%)          70%        27%
0ther    ( 3%)          59%        38%

Well, my guess wasn't half bas it seems.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

AP (Fox) vs Edison (NBC/CNN)- the AP exit poll sample is slightly more female, significantly older, significantly whiter, and less educated overall than the Edison sample. The Atlas consensus seemed to be that AP was slightly more accurate than Edison.

Edison has larger 18-29 and 30-44 age cohorts, and their racial crosstabs are closer to the actual US population. The Edison exit poll showed stronger Trump support among whites, blacks, and Asians (but not Latinos), among voters aged 30-44, and college graduates (but not postgrads). It looks like Edison picked up a lot of current undergraduate students, judging from the size of the age 18-29 and "some college, no degree" groups.


https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

AP Votecast:
Gender
Men (47%)   46%   52%
Women (53%)   55%   44%
Other (<1%)   70%   24%

Age
18-29 (13%)   61%   36%
30-44 (23%)   54%   43%
45-64 (36%)   48%   51%
65+   (28%)   48%   51%

Race/Ethnicity
White (74%)   43%   55%
Black (11%)   90%   8%
Latino (9%)   63%   35%
Asian (2%)   70%   28%
AIAN   (<1%)   46%   52%
NHPI   (<1%)   35%   59%
Other (3%)   51%   44%

Education
High school or less   (27%)   46%   52%
Some college             (34%)   48%   50%
College graduate   (25%)   56%   42%
Postgraduate study   (15%)   58%   40%



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

NBC/CNN:
Gender
Men (48%)   45%   53%
Women (52%)   57%   42%

Age
18-29 (17%)   60%   36%
30-44 (23%)   52%   46%
45-64 (38%)   49%   50%
65+   (22%)   47%   52%

Race/Ethnicity
White (67%)   41%   58%
Black (13%)   87%   12%
Latino (13%)   65%   32%
Asian (4%)   61%   34%
Other (4%)   55%   41%

Education
High school or less   (19%)   46%   52%
Some college             (23%)   51%   47%
Associate's degree     (16%)       47% 50%
College graduate   (27%)   51%   47%
Postgraduate study   (15%)   62%   37%

Pacific Islanders for Trump? That AP exit poll doesn’t seem great on those small racial subsamples.

[mileslunn]

AP (Fox) vs Edison (NBC/CNN)- the AP exit poll sample is slightly more female, significantly older, significantly whiter, and less educated overall than the Edison sample. The Atlas consensus seemed to be that AP was slightly more accurate than Edison.

Edison has larger 18-29 and 30-44 age cohorts, and their racial crosstabs are closer to the actual US population. The Edison exit poll showed stronger Trump support among whites, blacks, and Asians (but not Latinos), among voters aged 30-44, and college graduates (but not postgrads). It looks like Edison picked up a lot of current undergraduate students, judging from the size of the age 18-29 and "some college, no degree" groups.


https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/929478378/understanding-the-2020-electorate-ap-votecast-survey

AP Votecast:
Gender
Men (47%)   46%   52%
Women (53%)   55%   44%
Other (<1%)   70%   24%

Age
18-29 (13%)   61%   36%
30-44 (23%)   54%   43%
45-64 (36%)   48%   51%
65+   (28%)   48%   51%

Race/Ethnicity
White (74%)   43%   55%
Black (11%)   90%   8%
Latino (9%)   63%   35%
Asian (2%)   70%   28%
AIAN   (<1%)   46%   52%
NHPI   (<1%)   35%   59%
Other (3%)   51%   44%

Education
High school or less   (27%)   46%   52%
Some college             (34%)   48%   50%
College graduate   (25%)   56%   42%
Postgraduate study   (15%)   58%   40%



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/exit-polls
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

NBC/CNN:
Gender
Men (48%)   45%   53%
Women (52%)   57%   42%

Age
18-29 (17%)   60%   36%
30-44 (23%)   52%   46%
45-64 (38%)   49%   50%
65+   (22%)   47%   52%

Race/Ethnicity
White (67%)   41%   58%
Black (13%)   87%   12%
Latino (13%)   65%   32%
Asian (4%)   61%   34%
Other (4%)   55%   41%

Education
High school or less   (19%)   46%   52%
Some college             (23%)   51%   47%
Associate's degree     (16%)       47% 50%
College graduate   (27%)   51%   47%
Postgraduate study   (15%)   62%   37%

Pacific Islanders for Trump? That AP exit poll doesn’t seem great on those small racial subsamples.

Biden definitely won Native Americans.  Trump won Lumbi Tribe in North Carolina, but elsewhere went solidly for Biden.  I believe Native Americans were Biden's second biggest group after African-Americans.  For Pacific Islanders, I am guessing Biden won them, but possible Trump won Hawaiian vote as Niihau which is a private island and 100% Hawaiian had a 100% of its votes for Trump.  That being said in Hawaii, a lot of people are mixed race so many Hawaiians are mixed Asian or mixed white.

[Kamala's side hoe]

If the election were held today, here's how I think the various demographic groups would vote:

                            Biden(D) Trump(R)
Men     (48%)           45%        52%
Women(52%)           57%        42%

18-29   (16%)          60%        36%
30-44   (24%)          54%        44%
45-64   (35%)          47%        52%
65+      (25%)          49%        50%

White   (69%)          40%        58%
Latino   (12%)         68%        30%
Black    (12%)         89%        10%
Asian    ( 4%)          70%        27%
0ther    ( 3%)          59%        38%

Well, my guess wasn't half bas it seems.

White is too R, while Latino and Asian are too D. But your White estimate is more off than your Latino and Asian estimates IMO.

Looking at the AP/Fox (VoteCast) and NBC/CNN (Edison) exit polls again, it seems like VoteCast oversampled non-college White voters over 65 and undersampled nonwhite voters across the board. Maybe their postgrad crosstab is super White, while their nonwhite voters are more disproportionately bachelors-only than Edison?

It also seems like the Latino and Asian voters Edison got could have been disproportionately between 45-64. That would explain the age distribution of the Edison sample, which is heavy on the 45-64 age cohort, and would also explain why Edison's Asian crosstab is relatively R. Their postgrad crosstab is relatively D, while their bachelors-only crosstab is quite R.