UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[jaichind]

Consolidation around CON and LAB

[jaichind]

If it comes to an election I wonder if LDEM will form an alliance with the Greens.  Doing so can greatly threaten the CON in the South as such an alliance can draw anti-CON LAB tactical voters.  Not sure if such an alliance can work in practice. 

[jaichind]

Recent CON support in recent polls looks a lot like CON support right before the 2015 election.  Brexit party support in recent polls looks a lot like UKIP support right before the 2015 election.  What is different is that LAB support is lower and LDEM and Green support are higher.  What is key are how the LAB and LDEM support are structured which could drive anti-CON tactical voting.  If Johnson loses the vote in Parliament and manage to get a election the circumstances will drive Brexit party tactical voting for CON.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Apparently the newest cunning plan by Cummings is that Johnson will send the letter required by Parliament seeking an extension to the European Council -- but he will also send another letter where he asks the Council to ignore the first letter and not grant an extension. In this way BoJo will follow the letter of the law but can still seek to stop an extension.

I like it. Another variation is for Johnson to work with Hungary directly to have Hungary veto any extension. 

[jaichind]

It seems LDEM will take the position of revoking Article 50. If so then there will be no LAB-LDEM remain alliance in the upcoming election.  Question is will these be a de facto if not de jure CON-BXP leave alliance. 

[jaichind]

Different scenarios from ComRes this weekend



It is interesting that it seems Johnson is better off going for No Deal Exit than delay with the obvious risk of him going to jail.  What is also interesting is that BXP->CON vote share is almost as great as No Deal Exit with a Brexit with a deal.  It could be the BXP voters are imagining a deal where EU backs down and not an adjusted version of the May Deal.   

[jaichind]

New YouGov poll out today puts the LDs back in second again. Although they were hitting second a bunch right after the Euros (and first a couple of times), I think it's been a couple of months since they've been in second (and I think not once since Boris became PM), so somewhat notable.

Con: 32 (nc)
LD: 23 (+4)
Lab: 21 (-2)
BXP: 14 (nc)
Green: 4 (-3)

But this is right after the LDEM conference.   I assume after the LAB conference it will swing back.   

[jaichind]

Its also YouGov, who routinely gives lower Labour scores than other pollsters (and for that reason also provided most - if not all - of the surveys putting the LibDems ahead of them earlier this year)

I think Yougov underestimates LAB because unlike other pollsters they explicitly offer Greens as a party choice  with other poll only record Greens if the person being polled indicate OTHER and then provide Greens.

[jaichind]

I think Johnson should resign. His entire strategy was to us the threat of No Deal Brexit to for the EU to compromise and to then force moderates of all sides to vote for an amended deal.  That strategy does not seem viable anymore.  He should just like someone like Corbyn take a shot at coming up with something with the EU before 10/31 or some other date.  There is going to an election soon one way or another. 

[jaichind]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186839/brexit-news-boris-johnson-hungary-viktor-orban-nigel-farage-dominic-grieve-no-deal

Hungary angle again.  I think a better EU country for Johnson to bribe would be Malta.  Something like a promise of a naval base in return for a veto.

[jaichind]

Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.

But I have to imagine that even if something blocks a deal of some sort (EU, DUP, LAB etc etc) Johnson will try to position it : I tried my best to execute on the promise I made about Brexit for end of Oct but the evil <fill in the blank> blatantly blocked it their narrow political benefit. 

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

Impressive.  Johnson is further ahead in the count then I thought he would be.  Most of the CON anti no deal rebels must be voting for this deal.

[jaichind]

Comres snap poll has 40 for Johnson deal 31 oppose 29 dk

[jaichind]

Does this deal with the way it ia treating NI mean that CON is no longer a Unionist party and turning into a party of English nationalism

[jaichind]

Yougov snap poll has 41 to 24 on should parliament approve the Johnson deal.  For leave voters it is 67 to 10. If so CON can expect good number of BXP tactical voting in the next election. for LAB voters it is 25 to 35. 

[jaichind]

Yougov poll also had Johnson deal vs no deal vs remain at 30 bs 17 vs 38. Leave voters is 48 vs 33 vs 7.  Remain voters it is 17 vs 4 vs 73

[jaichind]

Is it too late for the Sinn Fein MPs to now take their seats and vote on the deal tomorrow?

[jaichind]

Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

[jaichind]

Betfair odds right seems to have odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow at around 53.6% vs 46.4%

[jaichind]

Betfair odds of Meaningful Vote to pass tomorrow has now risen to around 59%

[jaichind]

Survation poll

[jaichind]

Betfair odds for Johnson deal to pass today now down to around 37%.   Most likely because it seems now that Letwin amendment would pass which makes the vote on the Johnson deal moot today.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that DUP might abstain on Letwin.  Betfair odds for Johnson deal to pass today up a bit to 40%.

[jaichind]

They are now going to vote on Letwin.  Most likely it will pass and then the ball passes to Johnson to request an extension and EU to approve the extension.