Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania?

[bobloblaw]

Every cycle since '00, the Republicans make a major push at PA, especially as each campaign draws to a close.  In '12, PA looked like it was solidly in the Democratic column, until some late polls started showing Romney making a small dent.  Then, the Romney camp made a major push there to no avail, losing by >5 points.  In '08, PA really wasn't that close and yet the Republicans tried hard.  Bush made the most serious charge in '04, trying to draw enough conservatives between the east/west borders to offset the margin in Philly and it failed, although it was close (2.5 points). 

It seems (that at least in a presidential year), as long as Democrats receive at least 80% in Philly, the Republicans have little chance.  Sadly, the Republicans have gotten stronger in west PA, and it hasn't mattered.

Why are they fooled each time? I know the state ends up as "competitive" compared to others, but it's not budging.

PA is about D+2 or D+3 so if the national polls are close PA will look close.

[bobloblaw]

It's why the GOP has lost the popular vote every cycle but 2004 since 1992. They think that winning an overwhelming majority among white voters is still a valid path to victory in an increasingly multiracial America. Pennsylvania is sort of the best state to symbolize said trends, and like a popular vote victory, and now electoral vote victory, is just out of reach for Republicans.

How could it be "out of reach"? The Democrats have won two straight elections, and neither time was really a landslide in historical context. I've seen no reason why the Republicans couldn't win an election now- it's not like Democrats automatically have 50%+1 of the vote. Swing voters still rule elections.

Interesting how cocky the left is. Theyve won two elections in a row, the most recent was the 3rsd closest re-election of a sitting President in history and the only where the incumbent got FEWER votes.

The left subscribes to a version of Marx's Theory of History. Where a predetermined outcome in inevitable. Nothing can change it that is until it doesnt happen

[bobloblaw]

Let's do some math regarding the white vote in Pennsylvania:


2004 PENNSYLVANIA
• U.S. President: George W. Bush 48.42% | John Kerry 50.92% (D+2.50)
• Whites (82): George W. Bush 54% | John Kerry 45% (R+9)
• Percentages: George W. Bush 44.28% | John Kerry 36.90% (R+7.38)
• Dependency on Whites: George W. Bush 91.44% | John Kerry 72.46%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 18.98 (126%)

2008 PENNSYLVANIA
• U.S. President: John McCain 44.15% | Barack Obama 54.47% (D+10.32)
• Whites (81): John McCain 51% | Barack Obama 48% (R+3)
• Percentages: John McCain 41.31% | Barack Obama 38.88% (R+2.43)
• Dependency on Whites: John McCain 93.56% | Barack Obama 71.37%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 22.19 (131%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2004): Republican + 3.21
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –01 (98.78%, from 2004)


2012 PENNSYLVANIA
• U.S. President: Mitt Romney 46.58% | Barack Obama 51.96% (D+5.38)
• Whites (78): Mitt Romney 57% | Barack Obama 42% (R+15)
• Percentages: Mitt Romney 44.46% | Barack Obama 32.76% (R+11.70)
• Dependency on Whites: Mitt Romney 95.44% | Barack Obama 63.04%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 32.40 (151%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2008): Republican + 10.21
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –03 (96.29%, from 2008)

If the 2016 state exit polls were to result in a match from 2012, in Pennsylvania, here is an estimate:

2016 PENNSYLANIA
• U.S. President: Republican 45.81% | Democrat 52.73% (D+6.92; Shift: D+1.54)
• Whites (76): Republican 57% | Democrat 42% (R+15)
• Blacks (13): Republican 06% | Democrat 93% (D+87)
• Hispanics (08): Republican 18% | Democrat 80% (D+62)
• Asian (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Percentages (Whites): Republican 43.32% | Democrat 31.92% (R+11.40; Shift: D+0.30)
• Percentages (Blacks): Republican 00.78% | Democrat 12.09% (D+11.31; Shift: N.A.)
• Percentages (Hispanics): Republican 01.44% | Democrat 06.40% (D+4.96; Shift: D+1.24)
• Asian (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Other (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Dependency on Whites: Republican 94.56% | Democrat 60.53%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 34.03 (156%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2012): Republican + 1.63
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –02 (97.43%, from 2012)



Sources:

• How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election, by Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser (both from NBC News), page 130
• @ http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/pennsylvania/president/#.VWF6GHLJCUk
• @ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/is-doubling-down-on-white-voters-a-viable-strategy-for-the-republican-party/

So youre on record as predicting a nearly 7 point victory for Hillary in PA in 2016. Hillary will do a point and one half better than Obama did in 2012?