Arizona

[Padfoot]

That Arizona is as Republican as it is, is evidence that class plays some role in American voting patterns.

very true.  Arizona is also full of West Coast retirees who are fleeing the high living costs of California.  I imagine that makes for many moderate Republicans leaving California for Arizona in recent years.

Recent elections may even be an indication that Arizona is moving closer to the swing state category.  Arizona has a Democratic Governor and the state's House delegation is split evenly between the two parties.  However, this is by no means comparable to the leftward swing that Colorado has seen recently.

[Padfoot]

Arizona is a state that is becoming much less reliably Republican, along with a few others in the west. The Democrats have a realistic shot at it in '08, along with New Mexico (which of course they have won recently), Colorado, Nevada, and perhaps Montana.

Scratch out Montana and I'll agree with you.

Montana is more of a stretch than the others on this list but it is by no means impossible for the Dems to take.  They are doing particularly well on the state level right now so a good candidate could perhaps do well here.  I think Bill Richardson is probably the most likely Democrat to win Montana given his previous endorsement from the NRA and the fact that he is the governor of another small Western state.  He is the most likely to know what kind of issues will ring true for Western voters.