Arizona

[Stranger in a strange land]

In 2008 I think the Democratic Presidential nominee will get between 45%-48% of the vote in Arizona and should top 40% in Montana.  There a number of states which will remain out of reach of the Democrats, however, a good Democratic campaign could hope to get over 40% of the vote in the following states (in order of likelihood) -

1. Indiana
2. Kentucky
3. Montana
4. Kansas
5. South Dakota
6. Texas
7. Alabama?

The dems should break 40% quite easily in Texas this time. Bush isn't running, so there's no home-state advantage, plus the GOP has done a good job alienating Hispanic voters the past few years. Keep in mind the dems won't even come close to winning it, but they'll probably hold the republicans to around 55-57%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

In 2008 I think the Democratic Presidential nominee will get between 45%-48% of the vote in Arizona and should top 40% in Montana.  There a number of states which will remain out of reach of the Democrats, however, a good Democratic campaign could hope to get over 40% of the vote in the following states (in order of likelihood) -

1. Indiana
2. Kentucky
3. Montana
4. Kansas
5. South Dakota
6. Texas
7. Alabama?

The dems should break 40% quite easily in Texas this time. Bush isn't running, so there's no home-state advantage, plus the GOP has done a good job alienating Hispanic voters the past few years. Keep in mind the dems won't even come close to winning it, but they'll probably hold the republicans to around 55-57%.

Interesting and how does this affect the election?

It won't affect 2008, but 3 or 4 cycles down the road texas could become competitive. My point is that in 2000 and 2004 Texas got about as republican as it was going to get.