Places With Non-White Republicans

[Albus Dumbledore]

Interesting. The things I learn even in random demographics threads. Then again it's not too surprising.

[Torie]

Sbane, I suspect Obama won't win the 47th district in an even election nationally. The Asians are slowly increasing their percentage there, and McCain will run as well with Hispanics as Bush, at least on OC. I don't see a big increase in Hispanic turnout in any event. Also the area is slowly gentrifying overall. I am the asset manager of an apartment building in Garden Grove (I do more than just sue folks believe it or not). The "class" of the tenants has moved from from a mix bag of working class types (with a few crimbos who needed emergency action to cause to decamp), with a few odd lower middle class folks (we loved the postal worker tenants), into something more solidly anchored in the lower middle class. One sees almost no junk cars in the garage slots anymore. It's amazing what increasing rents (and they are still increasing - a claustrophobic studio goes for $950 per month in beautiful Garden Grove with the music of the freeway immediately adjacent to lull one to sleep) and housing prices (well until recently) can do isn't it?

Santa Ana is also gentrifying in many pockets. The parts of Anaheim in the district however, are still a dump, in general, with no immediate relief in sight. Some of the housing tracts look stressed. Apparently it is illegal there to paint one's home or cut the grass.

[Sbane]

Sbane, I suspect Obama won't win the 47th district in an even election nationally. The Asians are slowly increasing their percentage there, and McCain will run as well with Hispanics as Bush, at least on OC. I don't see a big increase in Hispanic turnout in any event. Also the area is slowly gentrifying overall. I am the asset manager of an apartment building in Garden Grove (I do more than just sue folks believe it or not). The "class" of the tenants has moved from from a mix bag of working class types (with a few crimbos who needed emergency action to cause to decamp), with a few odd lower middle class folks (we loved the postal worker tenants), into something more solidly anchored in the lower middle class. One sees almost no junk cars in the garage slots anymore. It's amazing what increasing rents (and they are still increasing - a claustrophobic studio goes for $950 per month in beautiful Garden Grove with the music of the freeway immediately adjacent to lull one to sleep) and housing prices (well until recently) can do isn't it?

Santa Ana is also gentrifying in many pockets. The parts of Anaheim in the district however, are still a dump, in general, with no immediate relief in sight. Some of the housing tracts look stressed. Apparently it is illegal there to paint one's home or cut the grass.

Yes but does gentrification lead to more republican votes or just more liberal whites living near city centers? The area around the Orange crush seems to be changing as well and I have heard plans of turning that area into a real downtown kind of place. This will definitely raise incomes but the votes may not go towards your side in all cases. As for the hispanic vote have you seen some of the recent polls? One showed Obama leading 62-30 and another was 59-34. This means he is already outpolling Kerry and perhaps will do even better. Turnout amongst them will be crappy as usual of course but I doubt Mccain will do any better amongst Asians. Thus I would say it is a slight lean towards Obama in a 50-50 race but we will see. It definitely will be interesting.

[Torie]

Bush got 38% of the Hispanic vote nationwide in 2004 (approximately). The 44% figure is totally bogus. There are no liberal metrosexual Anglos moving into the 47th district - none. Why in hell would they?  The closest they might get is in Orange near the Chapman circle, where there are all those desperately cute Craftsman homes, most of which are in splendid condition. Have you driven around that area?  But the Chapman circle area is not in the 47th district. The 47th district is not cute, anywhere! The cute parts of Santa Ana north of 17th Street, which are quite conservative actually (that is where Orange money used to live before WW II, and the two or three census tracts there are still packed with "fossilized" Anglos), are not in the district either.

[Sbane]

Bush got 38% of the Hispanic vote nationwide in 2004 (approximately). The 44% figure is totally bogus. There are no liberal metrosexual Anglos moving into the 47th district - none. Why in hell would they?  The closest they might get is in Orange near the Chapman circle, where there are all those desperately cute Craftsman homes, most of which are in splendid condition. Have you driven around that area?  But the Chapman circle area is not in the 47th district. The 47th district is not cute, anywhere! The cute parts of Santa Ana north of 17th Street, which are quite conservative actually (that is where Orange money used to live before WW II, and the two or three census tracts there are still packed with "fossilized" Anglos), are not in the district either.

Well I think it would more be poorer,younger possibly liberal whites looking for cheap housing, and the 47th district is the only place to find it in OC. Of course not many whites period are moving into OC right now and most of them are probably wealthy folks moving in near you somewhere. Also why is that 44% figure bogus? So did Kerry do better among whites? Perhaps asians? I have heard this claim before but never seen proof to back it up.

[Alcon]

It was given as one of the reasons Bush lost the state in 2000, heavy snows at one reservation.

Again, it snowed all over New Mexico that day, and more than one reservation was affected...even if turnout there was 80% down (what reservation was it?), and turnout on the other Rezes was just down 20%, it'd have been outvoted   None of the big Rezes (or small ones, for that matter, that I can tell) are Republican at all

[Torie]

Sbane, Pew Research did a careful study of Hispanic percentages in 2004, and came up with the 38% guesstimate. Other studies have concurred. If you are interested (just ask), I will try to find the links this weekend, although I posted them before. But trust me on this one.

Younger poorer liberal whites, don't like living in Orange county (those attending heavily subsidized universities being an exception, except "most" of "them" seem to be Asian these days). They get out at the first opportunity. And that is entirely sensible really.

[Sbane]

Sbane, Pew Research did a careful study of Hispanic percentages in 2004, and came up with the 38% guesstimate. Other studies have concurred. If you are interested (just ask), I will try to find the links this weekend, although I posted them before. But trust me on this one.

Younger poorer liberal whites, don't like living in Orange county (those attending heavily subsidized universities being an exception, except "most" of "them" seem to be Asian these days). They get out at the first opportunity. And that is entirely sensible really.

Sure whenever you have time I would appreciate it if you could send me a link.

Yeah you are basically right about the liberal whites, especially considering all the other options they have in southern california. Of course a lot of the jobs in socal are also concentrated in OC so it makes sense for someone to search for affordable housing closer to their place of work. Whether they will consent to live in a barrio is another matter altogether.

[nclib]

Steve Horn has not represented that district for a while and it was before the redistricting of 2000. John Kerry got about 65% of the vote in that district.

Right, I'm sorry it wasn't clear I was talking about someone who hasn't held office in nearly 10 years. I couldn't think of any current examples, so I went back into the records because I figured a Republican representing a district in demographic transition in CA was a good bet.

Are there Kerry numbers for pre-2002 districts somewhere or did you calculate that yourself?

Steve Horn was last elected in 2000, before redistricting increased the district's Hispanic population. I think Gore won that district, though I don't know what the demographics were back then.

I don't know about Kerry numbers in pre-2002 districts, but polidata.org has Gore/Bush numbers for pre-2002 districts.

[Cubby]

Does anyone have TX-23 county data to track how Bonilla did in hispanic-majority counties?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/TX/H/23/county.000.html

Bonilla got 58% of the vote in Webb County (Laredo) which is 94% Hispanic.