Kentucky - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Alcon]

So, will Obama carry any counties?  How bad will the slaughter be?

Let's get the ball rolling!

[Alcon]

Poblano's model says Clinton by 19.  He's very skeptical of it too, but his models have been great with margins before now.   His actually guesstimate says that Obama might be able to keep it within 25, but he personally disagrees with the model.

I'm also questioning whether Obama can even manage to beat "Other" (Uncommitted + Edwards) in KY-5.  It will certainly be nasty.

[Alcon]

Bowling Green: "Light turnout"
Louisville: "Above average"
Louisville: "Busy"
Frankfort: "No line"
Somewhere: "Light turnout"
Lexington: "Extremely low turnout"

[Alcon]

Turnout reports I'm seeing seem to break down:  55% low, 15% average, 20% above average, 10% high.

These may be the most pessimistic descriptions of turnout for a major election I've ever heard.

Turnout is projected to reach around 25%.

[Alcon]

Low turnot might actually help Obama in KY, no?

If turnout in Oregon is near 70% and it is 25% in Kentucky, that won't exactly help Clinton in the PV.  Otherwise it depends a lot on what kind of voter is or isn't turning out.

Kentucky voting less probably isn't going to hurt Obama.  The anecdotal reports out of Louisville seem more positive than elsewhere.  Don't get your hopes up, though.

What Al said, basically.

[Alcon]

25% may actually be overall in Kentucky, which would likely put Democratic turnout higher...although still not necessarily un-low.

[Alcon]

Oregon recession numbers (71-29):

A great deal 28%
Somewhat 43%
Not much 17%
Not at all 12%

Kentucky recession numbers (87-12):

A great deal 45%
Somewhat 42%
Not much 10%
Not at all 2%

As Morden pointed out, other exciting findings: Kentucky voters are pretty conservative, tend to be more rural and today is a day ending in the letter "y."

[Alcon]

Clinton voters:

McCain 41%
Obama 33%
Would not vote 23%

Obama voters:

Clinton 71%
McCain 14%
Would not vote 11%

[Alcon]

Who's going to be the nominee?

Kentucky: Obama 54%, Clinton 42%
Oregon: Obama 77%, Clinton 17%

[Alcon]

In order to get to 54-42 thinking Obama will win (adjusting to 100% at 56-44), with the 2:1 margin among Clinton voters and an arbitrary-selected 8:1 margin among Obama voters, that would mean a Clinton margin of about 3:2.  That does not include Edwards voters.

In other words, the early exit poll results - depending a lot on how Edwards voters see the race - indicate a Clinton/Obama split closer to 3:2 than 2:1.

Now, adding in Edwards voters at 7% (arbitrary) and assigning them a 2:1 margin believing that Obama will win, the margin looks something like Clinton 54%, Obama 38%.

Do you believe that?  I don't.

[Alcon]

The Fox exits still seem to be adding up to a margin under 3:2 to me...huh.

Maybe my math is really wrong.  Maybe the exit polls are really wrong.

"Churchgoers"?  How totally vague.

[Alcon]

CNN finally has their county map up.

Mostly slaughter, although Obama is carrying Fayette (Lexington) in very early returns.

Ron Paul is winning Bath County with some truly hilarious turnout rates.

[Alcon]

JeffCo (Louisville) 29% in, Clinton +3

[Alcon]

Warren County (Bowling Green) is labeled as "Barren County" on the CNN Kentucky map

So elitist

[Alcon]

1-in-4 voters being independent in a closed primary...? eh?

[Alcon]

I wonder why there is a weird clustering of Dem results.  Like, all of the southeast has reported, but none of the northeast.

And also why some counties are reporting GOP results but not Dem results...

"Uncommitted" is heavily carrying Lincoln County in the GOP race, which I suspect is the typo of the day.

[Alcon]

So, um, why does Edwards suck so much?

[Alcon]

CNN projects Kentucky by "perhaps a margin of 30 points"

[Alcon]

Exit poll says 64.9-29.2 Clinton, a margin of 35.7%.

[Alcon]

Jefferson County is currently about 3/4 of the votes cast.  It's less than 1/5 of the state population.

Slaughter, folks.

[Alcon]

Obama actually got a jump from 39 to 43 percent. Thats pretty odd.

Pretty Fayette County, actually

[Alcon]

Uh, down to 27% reporting and 60-36 Clinton.  OK...

Edit: Emphasis on down.  From like 35% to 26%...what.

[Alcon]

Clinton took 93% in Magoffin. About three thousand voted in the Democrat primary, about three hundred in the Republican one.

Elliott County is even better - 98.6% Democratic.  The Republican candidates combined managed to match "Uncommitted Democrat."

[Alcon]

Share of the remaining vote Clinton needs to get to certain margins:

30 points: 70%
35 points: 75%
Exit poll margin: 77.5%

[Alcon]

It looks like the Edwards endorsement was a huge backfire.

The idea that Edwards ever had significant working-class support was essentially a myth.  That plus the effect of endorsements, I'm not sure I'd call it a "backfire."  Just a nonstarter, which was pretty much to be expected.