New CBS/YouGov polls out later today (user search)
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  New CBS/YouGov polls out later today (search mode)
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Author Topic: New CBS/YouGov polls out later today  (Read 1134 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: August 07, 2016, 01:05:50 AM »
For AZ, NV and VA.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 07:49:35 AM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 07, 2016, 07:45:02 AM
Predictions

AZ: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +12
NV: Clinton +13

You're setting yourself up for a letdown. If it's an online pollster they'll probably underpoll Spanish speakers.

Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 08:01:56 AM »
Anyway, my predictions:

AZ: Clinton+1
NV: Clinton+8
VA: Clinton+9

That would be in line with a national C+8 lead.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,190
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 08:10:29 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on August 07, 2016, 08:07:17 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2016, 08:00:23 AM
Do Spanish-speakers not have Internet in the US ?

Tongue

I guess online pollsters like YouGov have ways now to weight for enough Spanish-speakers in their panels ...

Also, YouGov's state polling was quite good in 2008 and 2012.

I'm skeptical because back in June they released a Colorado poll with only Clinton +1, which looks hilarious in retrospect.

Didn't Trump lock up the GOP nomination at that point and Hillary aired ads only later there ?
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