CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Gass3268]

Thankfully everyone will be mailed a ballot plus organized ballot collection is legal in California, but Newsome is going to need to get Biden/Obama involved in a massive awareness campaign to raise the interest for Democrats. That SUSA poll has the Democratic partisan advantage drop from D+17 in the RV screen to D+5 in the LV screen.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I feel like once Democratic voters start getting them in the mail they'll realize this is for real.

But I hope Newsom has TV ads ready to go, and surrogates ready to go. I feel like we heard Warren and Harris are both participating?

[Gass3268]

Also, the California system for recalling officials is stupid. Wisconsin's is much better, even if it didn't work against Scott Walker.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also, the California system for recalling officials is stupid. Wisconsin's is much better, even if it didn't work against Scott Walker.

Recalls in general are questionable. At least with such a low quorum for ballot qualification.

[ꙮ]

If I were Newsom, I would make DeSantis my foil and beat the drum constantly on how much better California is doing than Florida.

If Newsom makes his recall campaign about Desantis, he deserves to lose.

[pppolitics]

If I were Newsom, I would make DeSantis my foil and beat the drum constantly on how much better California is doing than Florida.

If Newsom makes his recall campaign about Desantis, he deserves to lose.

Why is that?

[President Johnson]

Also, the California system for recalling officials is stupid. Wisconsin's is much better, even if it didn't work against Scott Walker.

Recalls in general are questionable. At least with such a low quorum for ballot qualification.

There shouldn't be recalls at all. Elected officials should serve their term without the permanent treat of a recall. For serious wrongdoings, there's always the possibility of impeachment. Newsom has done nothing that comes close to an impeachable offense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's have a Supermajority in the State Legislature what can an R Gov do

[sparkey]

D's have a Supermajority in the State Legislature what can an R Gov do

Nothing, which would be a big improvement.

[sparkey]

No GOP endorsement.

[brucejoel99]

No GOP endorsement.

Governor YouTube Landlord Guy incoming...

[MATTROSE94]

D's have a Supermajority in the State Legislature what can an R Gov do

I think the Democrats controlled the California state legislature since the late 1950s, so Governor Larry Elder probably won’t get much done legislative wise, though he will definitely invoke the Dual Elector scenario in 2024, as I have him getting narrowly re-elected in 2022 due to the Republican wave in that years midterm election.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

D's have a Supermajority in the State Legislature what can an R Gov do

I think the Democrats controlled the California state legislature since the late 1950s, so Governor Larry Elder probably won’t get much done legislative wise, though he will definitely invoke the Dual Elector scenario in 2024, as I have him getting narrowly re-elected in 2022 due to the Republican wave in that years midterm election.

Oh I can dream.

[TML]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

the main difference here is that it's an off-year. I actually think things would have been close (though a narrow Graham win) if that election happened in 2019.

[wbrocks67]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

This is my thought as well. I feel like once ballots start getting mailed out (as they were this weekend in some counties), things will start to consolidate.

[President Johnson]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

the main difference here is that it's an off-year. I actually think things would have been close (though a narrow Graham win) if that election happened in 2019.

In the few local election we have seen since Biden took office, like New Mexico's special election, turnout wasn't that bad. Democratic turnout may be relatively low, but I just fail to see how Newsom is actually ousted. And California is bluer than South Carolina is red.

[Matty]

It’s kind of a bad look to admit the mail in ballots will “save” newsome

Openly confessing what the gop has been saying: mail in ballots are a ploy to help democrats

It’s an abuse. In my view.

Elected officials using taxpayer money to personally solve their turnout problems is an appalling betrayal of public trust.

Governments shouldn’t make it hard to vote, but they also shouldn’t be in the business of maximizing turnout either.

If a Mexican in imperial county doesn’t care about the recall, who cares? If a 21 year old college student doesn’t care, why should the govt try to get them to vote?

[wbrocks67]

It’s kind of a bad look to admit the mail in ballots will “save” newsome

Openly confessing what the gop has been saying: mail in ballots are a ploy to help democrats

It’s an abuse. In my view.

Elected officials using taxpayer money to personally solve their turnout problems is an appalling betrayal of public trust.

Governments shouldn’t make it hard to vote, but they also shouldn’t be in the business of maximizing turnout either.

If a Mexican in imperial county doesn’t care about the recall, who cares? If a 21 year old college student doesn’t care, why should the govt try to get them to vote?

Mail in ballots are a ploy to make things easier for the voter. Doesn't make a difference if that voter is GOP or Dem.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It’s kind of a bad look to admit the mail in ballots will “save” newsome

Openly confessing what the gop has been saying: mail in ballots are a ploy to help democrats

It’s an abuse. In my view.

Elected officials using taxpayer money to personally solve their turnout problems is an appalling betrayal of public trust.

Governments shouldn’t make it hard to vote, but they also shouldn’t be in the business of maximizing turnout either.

If a Mexican in imperial county doesn’t care about the recall, who cares? If a 21 year old college student doesn’t care, why should the govt try to get them to vote?

So, more people having access to vote is bad? Ok then.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.

I said this exact same thing in another thread. I'm only pointing it out so you don't think I'm copying your perspective. I wrote that post before I saw this one. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks this way.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't know which take is more laughable. "California GOP Governor Larry Elder will win in 2022 because B I D E N M I D T E R M" or "It's actually bad to encourage more people to vote"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know which take is more laughable. "California GOP Governor Larry Elder will win in 2022 because B I D E N M I D T E R M" or "It's actually bad for governments to encourage more people to vote"

Stop counting chicken 🐔🐔🐔, Gov Newsom is still GOV, they already said it will be a long night with VBM

Trump approvals were upside down 43/46 Biden is right side up 46/43 Trump was being impeached for Ukraine, his wife is Ukrainian

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone know when that site that tracks CA mail ins/early voting goes live?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I voted No on Recall and mailed my ballot