2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

The different Haryana scenarios  put up by different exit polls are interesting.  

We have those that have BJP with a massive vote lead and some Jat tactical voting for INC and JJP leading to a large BJP seat lead but not a total wipe out.

News 18 where a BJP vote share of 50% gets them 75 out of 90 seats.





Then we have those that the BJP with a solid but not massive vote share but failure of Jat tactical voting for INC and JJP leads to a very large BJP seat share

NewsX has BJP vote share of around 43% but seat share of around 77


ABP Cvoter has BJP vote share of 42% but a seat share of 70





Then we have those that have a much lower BJP vote share plus Jat tactical voting for INC and JJP

India Today Axis My India has BJP vote share at 33% and seat share of 38



Then we have the bizarre scenario of Jan Ki Baat  where it has BJP with a monster vote share of 56% but a equally monster INC JJP and INLD Jat vote tactical voting/coordination to drive BJP to around 58 seats.

 



These exit polls are truly all over the place and even respect to vote share to seat share translation.

What is interesting is that the NewsX, ABP-Covter, and India Today Axis My India all have INC+JJP vote share around 45%-46% where the BJP seat count is more about how much rebels (mostly BJP) eats into the BJP vote and the level of Jat anti-BJP tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Counting started.  Still some of the results are postal ballots.  NDA ahead in both state but not by the blow out levels many had expected.

Maharashtra 
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              156                -8
UPA                65                -5
VBA                 0                 --
Others            30              +14 

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  47              -1
INC                 25            +10
INLD+SAD         3             -17
JJP                  12            +12
Others              4               -2

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

More votes coming in so the part of the vote which are postal ballots are going down.  NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              161               -20
UPA                87                +8
VBA                 3                 +3
Others            26                +9

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually gaining versus 2014

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  41              -6
INC                 32            +17
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                    8             +8
Others              7              +1

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD and now below majority territory. 

[jaichind]

More votes coming in so the part of the vote which are postal ballots are going down.  NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              166               -19
 BJP                 105              -17
 SHS                 61                -2
UPA                85               --
 INC                 36                -6
 NCP                47                +6
 CPM                 1                 --
 SP                    1                +1
 SWP                 0                  --
VBA                 4                 +4
Others            30               +13

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually flat vs 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  45              -2
INC                 28            +13
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                    9             +9
Others               6             --

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now very close to losing majority with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              163               -22
 BJP                 104              -18
 SHS                 59                -4
UPA                88                +3
 INC                 36                 -6
 NCP                 50                +9
 CPM                  1                --
 SP                    1                 --
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                6                +6
Others           30              +13

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually flat vs 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  41              -6
INC                 29            +14
INLD+SAD         1             -19
JJP                    9             +9
Others             10             +4

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now lost its majority with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

In Haryana it seems that BJP is trying to reach out to JJP to get JJP to back BJP post election.  JJP seems to be sending messages to INC to try to form a JJP-INC post-election alliance to form a government. 

[jaichind]

India Today Axis My India exit polls seems to be on the spot.  They had NDA well below 200 in Maharashtra and they had BJP not getting majority in Haryana.  Both seem to be true so far.

[jaichind]

ECI vote share so far

Maharashtra
(VBA is a new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
NDA       43.8%
  BJP        26.7%
  SHS       17.1%
UPA       32.7%
  INC        15.1%
  NCP       16.8%
  CPM         0.4%
  SP           0.4%
NMS      2.6%
BSP       0.8%
AIMIM    0.8%

Haryana
(JJP is new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
BJP           35.5%
INC           28.4%
INLD-SAD   2.8%
BSP            3.2%

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              168               -17
 BJP                 101              -21
 SHS                 66                +3
UPA                83                -2
 INC                  34                -8
 NCP                 48                +7
 CPM                  0                 -1
 SP                    1                 --
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                4                +4
Others           30              +13

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually flat vs 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  37             -10
INC                 33            +18
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                  10            +10
Others              7             +1

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now lost its majority with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

Looks like BJP is now scrambling in Haryana to try to form government and have canceled their victory celebrations there.   

[jaichind]

SHS is now in a much stronger position vis-a-vis BJP in Maharashtra if these trends hold.  SHS will now demand CM post and most likely will get a DCM post much to the anger of the local BJP.

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              161               -24
 BJP                  94               -28
 SHS                 67                +4
UPA                96               +11
 INC                  41                -1
 NCP                 52              +11
 CPM                  1                 --
 SP                    2                 +1
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                4                +4
Others           26               +9

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually gained versus 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  42              -5
INC                 28            +13
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                  10            +10
Others              8             +2

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now short of majority by a few seats with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

ECI vote share so far

Maharashtra
(VBA is a new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
NDA       43.4%
  BJP        26.4%
  SHS       17.0%
UPA       32.4%
  INC        15.0%
  NCP       16.7%
  CPM         0.4%
  SP           0.3%
NMS      2.5%
BSP       0.8%
AIMIM    1.1%

Haryana
(JJP is new party so it is lumped into Other so no data on them)
BJP           36.1%
INC           28.7%
INLD-SAD   2.9%
BSP            3.1%

Vote share mostly stable now.  It seems that rebels of all types did well.  VBA and JJP in Maharashtra and Haryana clearly won a good chunk of the vote, especially JJP.

[jaichind]

The 3 parties that did well in this election relative to expectations are JJP (it showed that it is the real INLD in Haryana), NCP (it survived the BJP attempt to destroy the party), and SHS (it has the leverage over the BJP now to gain a large part of power within the BJP-SHS government).  Another winner is Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana where he was put in charge of INC campaign and turned it around and avoided a complete meltdown.

[jaichind]

NDA well ahead but still losing ground versus 2014

Maharashtra
                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
NDA              160               -25
 BJP                  96               -26
 SHS                 64                +1
UPA                99               +14
 INC                  43               +1
 NCP                 53              +12
 CPM                  1                 --
 SP                    2                 +1
 SWP                 0                 --
VBA                2                +2
Others           26               +9 (15 IND, 2 NMS, 2 BVA, 2 AIMIM, 1 BSP 1 PWPI, 3 minor)

Rebels of all types doing fairly well and NDA actually losing a bit of ground versus 2014.  UPA actually gained versus 2014.  BJP losing more ground than SHS.  NCP gaining ground versus INC.

                    Lead         Diff vs 2014
Haryana       
BJP                  41              -6
INC                 29            +14
INLD+SAD         2             -18
JJP                  11            +11
Others              7             +1 (6 IND 1 LSP(BJP Jat splinter))

BJP actually losing ground versus 2014 and now short of majority by a few seats with INC and JJP gaining against INLD-SAD

[jaichind]

How likely is it that Congress forms the government in Haryana? The later trends seem to be moving in their favour.

Edit: Congress has caught up with BJP. 35-35

JJP will go with BJP if it comes down to it.   After all JJP leader Dushyant Chautala's father Ajay Singh Chautala have been convicted for corruption and estranged grandfather Om Prakash Chautala  is behind bars for corruption.  JJP would want to ally with the party in power at the center.  Only real way that BJP does not form government is if INC backs JJP's Dushyant Chautala to be CM.  But even that is the repeat of Karnataka 2018 where INC backed JD(S) to form the government it ended up in a fiasco AND there is no way INC Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda would back another Jat to be CM lest his Jat base shift over to JJP.

Another INC CM scenario would be the fact that several of JJP's MLAs are actually pro-Bhupinder Singh Hooda INC rebels that could defect back.  I doubt this would go anywhere as these pro-Bhupinder Singh Hooda MLA would have to look out for themselves and not put INC's interest above their own.

[jaichind]

Enough votes have been counted on ECI to use ECI seat count

Mahabharata

                Win/ahead            Vote share
NDA               157                     42.4%
 BJP                   100                     25.3%
 SHS                    57                     17.1%
UPA                101                     33.1%
 INC                    43                     15.7%
 NCP                    55                     16.7%
 SP                       2                        0.3%
 CPM                     1                       0.4%
 SWP                    0
IND                13                    ~14.8%   (mostly BJP and SHS rebels)
VBA                  1                       3.5% (from NDTV)
NMS                 1                        2.4%
AIMIM               3                       1.4%
BSP                  0                        0.9%
BVA                  3                                 (pro-UPA)
JSS                   1                                (pro-NDA)
PWPI                1                                 (pro-UPA)
RSP                  1                                 (pro-NDA)
Minors              4

It seems that various rebels (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) ate into the 2019 LS NDA vote share in a significant way

Haryana

                Win/ahead            Vote share
BJP                  39                    36.2%
INC                 32                     28.2%
JJP                  10                     14.9% (from NDTV)
INLD-SAD         1                       2.6%
IND                  7                      ~13% (mostly BJP rebels)
HLP                  1                      (INLD splinter)

Again, rebels of all stripes but mostly BJP rebels ate into the 2019 LS BJP vote.

[jaichind]

Subhash Barala, BJP president of Haryana has resigned 

[jaichind]

Overall the INC ran a disastrous, leaderless and disorganized campaign.  These results shows how much the BJP could have been damaged had the INC bother to get organized and try to defeat BJP, especially in Maharashtra.   Had INC merely endorsed NCP's Sharad Pawar as the leader of UPA in Maharashtra the UPA performance could have been even better and in retrospect could have denied NDA a majority.   

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Satara LS by-election  - NCP mostly preserved its base.  The BJP candidate is the NCP winner from 2019 LS election that defected to BJP only to lose in the by-election

NCP  51.3%
BJP   43.6%
VBA    1.4%

In 2019 LS election

NCP  51.9%
SHS  40.6%
VBA    3.6%


Bihar Samastipur LS by-elections - Modi wave recedes as INC gains ground from LJP

LJP    49.5%
INC   36.5%
JAP      1.9% (RJD splinter)

In 2019 LS election

LJP    55.2%
INC   30.5%

[jaichind]

In Haryana it seems that JJP's Dushyant Chautala has decided to back BJP to form government.  Not a surprise given the corruption cases against his family.

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra SHS demands 50/50 split of power and for BJP and SHS to share CM post with each getting 2.5 years as CM.  I assume that this demand would be BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis going on for 2.5 years and then SHS Aditya Thackeray being CM for the next 2.5 years.  BJP is evasive.

To show that SHS means business SHS is congratulating NCP and INC on their better than expected performance.

[jaichind]

ECI count - some but not a lot of seats which are not called yet so vote share are going to be stable with a slight shift in seats going forward

Mahabharata

                Win/ahead            Vote share
NDA               160                     42.2%
 BJP                   103                     25.7%
 SHS                    57                     16.5%
UPA                101                     33.1%
 INC                    46                     15.8%
 NCP                    53                     16.7%
 SP                       2                        0.2%
 CPM                     1                       0.4%
 SWP                    0
IND                13                    ~15.1%   (mostly BJP and SHS rebels)
VBA                  0                       3.5% (from NDTV)
NMS                 1                        2.3% (SHS splinter)
AIMIM               2                       1.4%
BSP                  0                        0.9%
BVA                  3                                 (pro-UPA)
JSS                   1                                (pro-NDA)
PWPI                1                                 (pro-UPA)
RSP                  1                                 (pro-NDA)
PJP                   2                                 (SHS splinter)
KSP                  1                                 (NCP splinter)
It seems that various rebels (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) ate into the 2019 LS NDA vote share in a significant way

Haryana

                Win/ahead            Vote share
BJP                  40                    36.5%
INC                 31                     28.1%
JJP                  10                     14.9% (from NDTV)
INLD-SAD         1                       2.8%
BSP                  0                       4.1%
IND                  7                     ~12.4% (mostly BJP rebels)
HLP                  1                      (INLD splinter)

Again, rebels of all stripes but mostly BJP rebels ate into the 2019 LS BJP vote.

[jaichind]

To counter SHS's aggressive posture BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis claims that he is in touch with various independents (mostly BJP and SHS rebels) and minor party MLAs (I assume parties like JSS RSP plus various splinter parties).  Of course from a numbers point of view this does not work since UPA-SHS will have a clear majority of seats.  In fact UPA seat count is about the same as BJP leaving SHS holding the balance of power.  In this case the SHS threat to go with UPA could be empty since such a move might split SHS (as well as INC) but nevertheless BJP rounding out various independents and minor party MLAs does not get it a majority without SHS.

[jaichind]

In the various assembly by-elections it seems NDA did worse than expected.  I will have to dig into details but in Bihar, UP, and Gujarat NDA lost ground when the ruling party should gain ground in assembly by-elections.  In other states the ruling party retained or gained ground as expected like TN, Punjab MP and so on.  In Assam it did seem that INC lost ground to BJP as the Hindu vote continue to consolidate behind BJP while the Muslim vote consolidates behind INC in INC-BJP seats. But that still has BJP winning.