2013 Elections in Germany

[Leftbehind]

Shouldn't FDP be listed after the Left and Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Brandenburg state election poll by Emnid:

36% SPD (+3)
23% CDU (+3)
22% Left (-5)
  8% Greens (+2)
  4% Pirates (+4)
  3% FDP (-4)
  2% NPD (-1)
  2% Others (-2)

[RogueBeaver]

Is Brandenburg a deeply Red state? Sure seems like it from that poll.

Steinbruck: Yeah, still stuck on stupid. I can't wait for the debates.

[DC Al Fine]

Is Brandenburg a deeply Red state? Sure seems like it from that poll.

Steinbruck: Yeah, still stuck on stupid. I can't wait for the debates.

Yes, CDU came 3rd in the last state election there.

[Franknburger]

Here is today's press fallout on Peer Steinbrück:

Bild (tabloid, right-leaning): "Two clowns are two clowns. This needed to be said".

Hamburger Morgenpost (tabloid, left leaning): "Steinbrück put his foot in again - this time with warm-up".

Süddeutsche (moderate): "Steinbrück has just been dismissed on short notice. Not yet as candidate for chancellorship, but as discussion partner of the Italian president, who is definitely no clown".

Handelsblatt (business daily): "Steinbrück achieves the impossible - he unifies Italy".

Neue Presse (center-left): "Should he become chancellor, he of course will need to diplomatically restrain himself. As a candidate, he may well talk in plain language".

TAZ (Green-left): "Our Beppe - the teutonic, more serious and less humorous version.  Grillo's party got 25.6 percent. For the SPD, with this candidate, this would be an excellent result."

Die Welt (conservative): "You don't become chancellor this way. But maybe Steinbrück doesn't want to be chancellor at all. His series of gaffes more and more looks like passive resistance".

FAZ (moderate conservative): "This time it is different. This time Steinbrück said in public what most Germans think in private. One could get the impression that this gaffe wasn't a gaffe, but a calculated break of taboo. The public's surprisingly postive reaction could encourage Steinbrück to continue this path."

Last update on the Spiegel online poll (9014 votes by now):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      49.0
   No mistake                              49.5                

-----
the upcoming polls shall be quite interesting ..        

P.S: How could I forget Steinbrück's new nickname, created by a FDP back-bencher, that is all over the headlines now: "Peerlusconi"

[Franknburger]

Polling update - there has been quite some action over the last days:

EMNID, Feb. 24
CDU        41 ()
SPD         27 ()
Grüne      14 (-1)
Linke        7 (+1)

FDP          4 ()
Piraten     4 (+1)
Others     3 (-1)

INSA / YouGov, Feb. 26
CDU        40 ()
SPD         28 (-1)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        7 (+1)

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     2 ()
Others     3 ()

Forsa, Feb. 27
CDU        40 (-3)                (Return to the mean?)
SPD         25 (+1)
Grüne      16 (+1)
Linke        8 (+1)

FDP          4 (+1)
Piraten     2 (-1)
Others     5 ()

Infratest dimap, Feb. 28
CDU        41 (+1)
SPD         27 (-1)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        6 ()

FDP          4 (-1)
Piraten     3 ()
Others      4 (+1)

Mainly statistical noise, not much to comment about. But anyway a good baseline to monitor the impact of Steinbrück's clown statement.

[Franknburger]

Last update on the Spiegel online poll (9014 votes by now):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      49.0
   No mistake                              49.5                

Here's todays Spiegel poll update (15168 votes, still increasing every minute):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      46.0
   No mistake                              52.5   

Domestically, Steinbrück is winning this one.             

[Franzl]

Well Steinbrück is right, after all.

[Niemeyerite]

Well Steinbrück is right, after all.

Exactly.

[Leftbehind]

Mainly statistical noise, not much to comment about.

Have the Left done anything recently? 3 of the 4 polls there have them gaining a point.

[Franknburger]

Well Steinbrück is right, after all.

In fact, he is not. Neither did Berlusconi win the Italian election, nor is it fair to equate Grillo with Berlusconi. As Volker Beck, head of the Green parliamentary faction, commented "Steinbrück has insulted every professional clown with his remarks" ...

[ERvND]

So far, the media fallout over this "scandal" is relatively moderate.

Maybe we are at a point where Steinbrück's image is so utterly ruined that one gaffe more or less simply doesn't matter. I mean, what will be next? He eats cute babies for breakfast? Yawn.

[Leftbehind]

Maybe we are at a point where Steinbrück's image is so utterly ruined that one gaffe more or less simply doesn't matter. I mean, what will be next? He eats cute babies for breakfast? Yawn.

He could always have a foreign Labour/socialist leader talk down his policies as ridiculous.

[RodPresident]

If I were SPD directionship, I'd try to depose Steinbrück immediately. Draft Steinmeier or Gabriel to do a damage control or Kraft to try to win.

[MaxQue]

If I were SPD directionship, I'd try to depose Steinbrück immediately. Draft Steinmeier or Gabriel to do a damage control or Kraft to try to win.

Why wouldn't those would want to run, instead of waiting 2017? That one will be more winnable than this year.

[RodPresident]

4 years in politics are eternity. CDU/CSU can find a good heir for Merkel, Greens can get stronger, FDP make a comeback. Maybe Steinbrück is to get a 2nd place and a CDU/CSU-FDP again.

[saintjuste1791]

Here is today's press fallout on Peer Steinbrück:

Bild (tabloid, right-leaning): "Two clowns are two clowns. This needed to be said".....

Why can't Germans understand that by pushing austerity on Club Med they are ruining everybodies' chances, including their own?

Is this Social Democratic politics now?  You WILL vote for technocrats who tell you you have no future or we will call you names?

[ERvND]

4 years in politics are eternity. CDU/CSU can find a good heir for Merkel, Greens can get stronger, FDP make a comeback.

Right now, Merkel is at a 75% approval rate. You can't get much higher in a democratic system.

That's why it is very likely that Merkel (or her successor) will be less popular in four years. For the SPD, this means to sit out this election with a weak Steinbrück and save their better candidates (especially Kraft) for 2017.

[RogueBeaver]

By 2017 incumbency fatigue will start creeping in after 12 years. Merkel might choose to fight that last election and then retire midterm. But this is all a few years away, plenty of time to figure things out.

[Franknburger]

I am more and more thinking that Steinbrück's statement wasn't a gaffe, but calculated. Since the CDU has been moving quite to the left over the recent years, there are not many voters up for grabs in the center, especially if the SPD wants to avoid erosion of their left flank towards the Linke.

There are, however, some 30+ percent of eurosceptics in Germany, which so far grumblingly herd behind Merkel for lack of alternatives. FDP head Rösler tried for some time to make inroads with them, but has been called to order by genscher and other party seniors. Of course, neither Steinbrück nor the SPD do seriously want to lead Germany out of the Eurozone, but why not try to get some traction with eurosceptics? This requires of course careful balancing, in order to not alienate the 70% pro-Europeans in the electorate.

When you read Steinbrück's statement on Italy in full, including his wishy-washy 'maybe Italians want less austerity, maybe they just fell prey to the populists', and his closing expression of concern about future development of the Eurozone, you start to wonder how quickly he has been able to switch from "plain language mode" to Statesman 2.0. Since Napolitano did not give any reason for cancelling the meeting with Steinbrück, you also wonder why Steinbrück's speaker pointed at the 'clown' statement.  He could just have said the meeting was cancelled in order to allow Napolitano getting back to Italy earlier, and nobody would have asked any further.

[Franzl]

03.03.2013, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow with no majority (45-49).
Red-green with no majority (42-52).

[Franknburger]

03.03.2013, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow with no majority (45-49).
Red-green with no majority (42-52).

The trend is interesting. CDU down by 1, SPD unchanged, Grüne up by 1. This is what I expected to see after Steinbrücks's remarks. Could as well however be just statistical noise - let's see what the next polls look like.

[Franknburger]

INSA / YouGov, March 4
CDU        41 (+1)
SPD         26 (-2)
Grüne      15 ()
Linke        7 ()

FDP          5 ()
Piraten     3 (+1)
Others     3 ()

Internet polling, representing the better-informed part of the electorate. In this group, Steinbrück's comments have obviously hurt the SPD. While the 1% swing towards the CDU could be expected, it is a bit surprising that the Pirates, and not the Greens, have benefitted on the opposition side.

New Forsa numbers should come in tomorrow, infratest dimap on Thursday, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen  (with raw numbers) on Friday, then we should have a good overview on the overall trend


Here's the final update on the Spiegel poll (17838 votes):
   Steinbrück made a mistake:      47.1
   No mistake                              51.4

Over the last days, the mood appears to have swung a bit against Steinbrück.

[Franzl]

GMS, 06.03.2013, Bavaria State Election:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 21%
Grüne: 12%
FW: 8%

FDP: 3%
Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Easy CSU absolute majority (48-41).

[Franzl]

Forsa, 06.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 8%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Grand coalition here we come.