U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[Nyvin]

Clark County has 73.5% of the state's population as of 2018.   By 2020 it will be on the verge of 74%.   It should almost have three districts to itself by the time the Census comes out. 

All that should be needed to be added to NV-4 (the only district to split Clark) to get the last 1% is the area around Pahrump in Nye county.

[Nyvin]

The Republican should argue for the creation of a hispanic VRA district in Clark County, and thereby prevent Democrats from cracking North Vegas to shore up the 3rd and 4th district. Though, while it would be difficult to get a majority hispanic VAP district, a 42-43 percent one is very doable. If Democrats are going to argue Florida’s 5th a 46 percent black district is protected then a 43 percent Vegas district might as well be,

FL-5 isn't drawn for the VRA (at least not in theory, I don't know if you could make a federal lawsuit out of it if it was removed),  it's drawn for Section 20, Article 1 of the FL state constitution -

No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent; and districts shall not be drawn with the intent or result of denying or abridging the equal opportunity of racial or language minorities to participate in the political process or to diminish their ability to elect representatives of their choice; and districts shall consist of contiguous territory.

https://ballotpedia.org/Article_III,_Florida_Constitution#Section_20

Also I'm pretty sure it's almost impossible to draw a VRA district in Vegas,  the HVAP would be too low to guarantee a candidate of their choice most of the time.

[Nyvin]

This follows a trend that's been seen elsewhere - Democrats spreading out their support to maximize winnable seats, while Republicans mostly just consolidate the seats they have (except in Ohio and North Carolina).

[Nyvin]

Gingles is in play here, so if the evidence shows that Hispanic candidates are shut out in Dem primaries with 30% Hispanic CD's, due to a sufficient level of block voting, the Pubs via the appropriate plaintiff potentially have a lawsuit here of some merit. I got suspicious when the Dems put out the spin about two performing Hispanic CD's, so I did a Gingles check.

They won't make a section 2 district based on total population, it would be HVAP.