Obama Surge in California

[Wiz in Wis]

Because this looks like a wierd tracking poll, I will abstain from entering it. But, it does have a huge shift for Obama appearing after SC.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/30/BAVUUO9E4.DTL

Scroll down after the police story.

Overall, Clinton leads Obama 36 - 31, with 12 for now departing Edwards, but only one day of the three comes after SC. That day, albeit with a small sample, has Obama up 35-32. One poll is, of course, hard to rely on, but this does show quite the surge.

[John Dibble]

Good for Obama if true, but I don't see a source for who conducted the poll so there's not much way to tell if this is valid or not.

[Wiz in Wis]

Good for Obama if true, but I don't see a source for who conducted the poll so there's not much way to tell if this is valid or not.

I agree. The lack of a link to the data and firm is a bit disconcerning.

[Verily]

I saw this story, but decided not to post it because I had no idea where the poll was coming from. The SF Chronicle did, after all, endorse Obama. Still, nothing precludes this being a credible poll poorly reported.

[Eraserhead]

Great if true.

[Cubby]

While its great news if true, its just too sketchy. I don't like how they say "about 25% each". If you're too lazy to put in the actual numbers, then maybe you should do more research before you publish it.

[MarkWarner08]

According to SUSA, Hillary beat Obama by 24% among those who already voted. That group amounts to around 23% of the voters surveyed. If those numbers remain the same, Obama will need to beat Hillary by  >5% on Election Day to win in CA.

[Gabu]

According to SUSA, Hillary beat Obama by 24% among those who already voted. That group amounts to around 23% of the voters surveyed. If those numbers remain the same, Obama will need to beat Hillary by  >5% on Election Day to win in CA.

Oh boy, I had forgotten about early voting.

Obama may be screwed if that's true.

[MarkWarner08]

According to SUSA, Hillary beat Obama by 24% among those who already voted. That group amounts to around 23% of the voters surveyed. If those numbers remain the same, Obama will need to beat Hillary by  >5% on Election Day to win in CA.

Oh boy, I had forgotten about early voting.

Obama may be screwed if that's true.

TPM:
With more than a fifth of the Feb. 5 delegates, California is Super Tuesday's richest prize. The state has long been a Clinton stronghold — so much so that her California campaign director already has predicted victory.

"We've got it," director Ace Smith said, noting that the campaign has already met or exceeded early voting targets that are considered a strong indicator of primary day performance. About half of the state's Democrats are expected to cast absentee ballots, and many began nearly a month ago, on Jan. 7.

California's done. If Obama wins cuts Clinton's winning margin to 5% or less, that'll help with delegates.

[Sam Spade]

This poll was conducted for some unmentioned anti-Indian gaming organization, or at least that's what the article says.

Toss it.