LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Tender Branson]

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

[Tender Branson]

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

Quick math: With these numbers (Black share some 23% overall), Landrieu is on the way to lose by about 60-40 to 65-35.

[Tender Branson]

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

Quick math: With these numbers (Black share some 23% overall), Landrieu is on the way to lose by about 60-40 to 65-35.

With 175K early votes, the Black share is still stuck at a low 26%:

http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1206_StatewideStats.pdf

That means roughly 24% Blacks overall (in the exit poll), because the election day vote will be "whiter".

Based on these new numbers, Landrieu will be defeated by about 62-38.

[Tender Branson]

For what it's worth, a few early voting statistics for the LA-runoff (not looking good at all for Mary Landrieu, but we already knew that):

Ca. 100K early votes in so far and the Black share is only 25%.

Ahead of the 1st round, ca. 250K early votes were cast and the Black share was 32.5%

Bottom line: Landrieu will get slaughtered.

Quick math: With these numbers (Black share some 23% overall), Landrieu is on the way to lose by about 60-40 to 65-35.

With 175K early votes, the Black share is still stuck at a low 26%:

http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1206_StatewideStats.pdf

That means roughly 24% Blacks overall (in the exit poll), because the election day vote will be "whiter".

Based on these new numbers, Landrieu will be defeated by about 62-38.

Yesterday was the final day for early voting and another 50K votes were cast.

So, with 222K early votes cast the Black share is 27.5% (down 5% from the 1st round).

That means the exit poll will roughly show a 70% White, 25% Black, 5% other split.

Landrieu to lose by about 39-61, based on the updated numbers.

[Tender Branson]

The early vote over the past few days has held pretty steady at 70% white 28% black. Still better than 2010, Landrieu is on track to get around 44% if this holds.

More like 40%.

The Black share in early voting is 27.5%, but because the election day vote will be whiter - the overall black share will be more like 26%. So 70% White, 26% Black and 4% Others.