Sean Trende: GOP nomination may be in Kasich's hands

[Torie]

The actual headline says "is" rather than "may," but Trende really means may, when you read his text. He hardly makes the case that if Kasich drops out, Cruz will per force end up with the nomination. That is ludicreous.

The "overselling" headline aside, Trende argues that Kasich staying in, is in effect harvesting delegates for Trump, putting him over the top. I am not sure his number crunching actually works, or that Kasich supporters would vote for Cruz in droves as Trende posits, if Kasich drops out, but there you have it.

I don't think the Pubs will deny Trump the nomination in any event, if he gets close, per Trende's number crunching if Kasich drops out, for reasons I stated elsewhere (and it is by no means obvious that Cruz could win POTUS to say the least anyway).

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich may control the GOP nomination in a sense that's distinct form the one discussed by Trende: If no one has a delegate majority, and Kasich has the third largest number of delegates after Trump and Cruz (he's still behind Rubio now, but presumably he'll catch up soon enough), then the nomination may come down to which of Cruz or Trump gets Kasich's backing, perhaps as their VP.  Not that Kasich's delegates would be bound to follow him in such a circumstance, but Cruz getting Kasich's backing and joining him on the ticket might make it more palatable for delegates to go against the "plurality choice" in Trump, if his plurality is eclipsed by two other candidates whose combined votes outnumber his.

[Ebsy]

Sad.

[Torie]

Kasich may control the GOP nomination in a sense that's distinct form the one discussed by Trende: If no one has a delegate majority, and Kasich has the third largest number of delegates after Trump and Cruz (he's still behind Rubio now, but presumably he'll catch up soon enough), then the nomination may come down to which of Cruz or Trump gets Kasich's backing, perhaps as their VP.  Not that Kasich's delegates would be bound to follow him in such a circumstance, but Cruz getting Kasich's backing and joining him on the ticket might make it more palatable for delegates to go against the "plurality choice" in Trump, if his plurality is eclipsed by two other candidates whose combined votes outnumber his.

Isn't that a rather big "if?" I take your point however, that if the if is met, that might provide enough of a fig leaf to substantially mitigate the bite of the "stolen" meme, while denying Trump the nomination,

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich may control the GOP nomination in a sense that's distinct form the one discussed by Trende: If no one has a delegate majority, and Kasich has the third largest number of delegates after Trump and Cruz (he's still behind Rubio now, but presumably he'll catch up soon enough), then the nomination may come down to which of Cruz or Trump gets Kasich's backing, perhaps as their VP.  Not that Kasich's delegates would be bound to follow him in such a circumstance, but Cruz getting Kasich's backing and joining him on the ticket might make it more palatable for delegates to go against the "plurality choice" in Trump, if his plurality is eclipsed by two other candidates whose combined votes outnumber his.

Isn't that a rather big "if?" I take your point however, that if the if is met, that might provide enough of a fig leaf to substantially mitigate the bite of the "stolen" meme, while denying Trump the nomination,

In the popular vote, Cruz and Kasich combined already have more votes than Trump does, and I don't expect that to change any time soon, since Rubio supporters are probably more likely to switch to Cruz / Kasich than they are to Trump.  Now true, this may not turn out to be the case among pledged delegates, but in the event of a contested convention where Trump goes in under 50%, the popular vote is probably going to be as much of a talking point over who has a "mandate" as anything.

[Lief 🗽]

Are the non-Trump's ever going to take responsibility for actually winning over voters and building a coalition of support? Or is Lyin' Ted just gonna follow Lil' Marco's lead and whine that his opponents won't drop out and force their supporters to vote for him?

[Torie]

Kasich may control the GOP nomination in a sense that's distinct form the one discussed by Trende: If no one has a delegate majority, and Kasich has the third largest number of delegates after Trump and Cruz (he's still behind Rubio now, but presumably he'll catch up soon enough), then the nomination may come down to which of Cruz or Trump gets Kasich's backing, perhaps as their VP.  Not that Kasich's delegates would be bound to follow him in such a circumstance, but Cruz getting Kasich's backing and joining him on the ticket might make it more palatable for delegates to go against the "plurality choice" in Trump, if his plurality is eclipsed by two other candidates whose combined votes outnumber his.

Isn't that a rather big "if?" I take your point however, that if the if is met, that might provide enough of a fig leaf to substantially mitigate the bite of the "stolen" meme, while denying Trump the nomination,

In the popular vote, Cruz and Kasich combined already have more votes than Trump does, and I don't expect that to change any time soon, since Rubio supporters are probably more likely to switch to Cruz / Kasich than they are to Trump.  Now true, this may not turn out to be the case among pledged delegates, but in the event of a contested convention where Trump goes in under 50%, the popular vote is probably going to be as much of a talking point over who has a "mandate" as anything.

That kind of surprises me (I didn't think Kasich had really got that many votes to more than close the Trump-Cruz gap), but I take your word for it. In other news, Kasich says no way to teaming up with Trump, but yes, I know, I know. But hey, maybe he means it. They would be a most odd  couple indeed.

[Mr. Morden]

That kind of surprises me (I didn't think Kasich had really got that many votes to more than close the Trump-Cruz gap), but I take your word for it.

Here is the popular vote so far:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 37%
Cruz 27%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 13%
Carson 3%
Bush 1%

Of course, since Trump, Cruz, and Kasich are the only candidates left in the race, their %ages are presumably going to go up by the time the primaries end (assuming they stick it out to the end), while the %ages for Rubio et al. will shrink.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Are the non-Trump's ever going to take responsibility for actually winning over voters and building a coalition of support? Or is Lyin' Ted just gonna follow Lil' Marco's lead and whine that his opponents won't drop out and force their supporters to vote for him?

Maybe they could try threatening mob violence at the convention? That seems to be Trump's preferred alternative to actually winning over the voters.

[Maxwell]

If there is Trump-Cruz at like 1000-800, and Kasich has 300 or close to it, then he may be able to swing it.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It is somewhat more likely than a remote, remote possibility of Kasich somehow getting the nod himself.