NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Meeker]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

You're going to want to wipe all that sticky stuff off your keyboard before it dries.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Unfortunate, but oh well. Our good track record in special elections had to stop at some point, eh?

[Keystone Phil]

ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

[Torie]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

The Clark County parts of NV-02 are very Pubbie. So I would not jack off on that alone. Washoe numbers are more interesting. It is a swingy county. It's final numbers should be very interesting.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

The point, you have missed it.

[Keystone Phil]

ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

The point, you have missed it.

You won a seat thanks, in large part, due to a fake Tea Party candidate taking a good chunk of the vote. Unfortunately for you, the SWP candidate in NY 9 got a whopping...eh...0% of the vote.

[Wonkish1]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.

[Keystone Phil]

Has Anthony Weiner tweeted his thoughts on this race yet?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

"Weprin gets on stage, says he's not conceding, rushes off without taking qs and gets off into car that sped off #ny9"

What the hell?

[Meeker]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/NV02_109.gif

[DrScholl]

I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.

[J. J.]

You can write off what is happening in Brooklyn to the Orthodox vote.  You can say Weprin wasn't a strong candidate (he was fairly strong).  However you cannot write off Queens for eith of those things.

If you are Obama, you have think that what happened in Queens is about you.

[Sbane]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.

The media doesn't know sh**t. Washoe is the one to watch. Those numbers predict the state.

[Keystone Phil]

"Weprin gets on stage, says he's not conceding, rushes off without taking qs and gets off into car that sped off #ny9"

What the hell?

Perfect!

This hasn't been embarrassing enough for the dangerous party. Let them dig the hole a little deeper.

[memphis]

A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?

[Wonkish1]

Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

[DrScholl]

PPP stated in their poll that Democrats were not turning out in NV-2. Presidential year turn out will be different.

Why is it so hard for logic to get through to some people?

[Torie]

OK, thanks Wonk. I was relying on something posted by someone a few days ago, that the NV-02 sliver of Clark was very GOP. Apparently the chap was in error.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?

Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

The point, you have missed it.

You won a seat thanks, in large part, due to a fake Tea Party candidate taking a good chunk of the vote. Unfortunately for you, the SWP candidate in NY 9 got a whopping...eh...0% of the vote.

The fake Tea Party candidate largely won his support from disaffected working class independents and Democrats who hated Corwin. If they were pushed, most of them wouldn't have voted and they would have likely broken for Hochul. Remember that Davis based most of his candidacy off of protectionism, and protecting SS/Medicare.

The point being that Republicans are not winning any of these races based off of their strengths but because the opposition party is less popular. Perry and Romney are still very unpopular, the GOP is still hated, most Republican Governors are still hated etc. This all with a an unpopular Democratic President. In otherwords, you guys have managed to cock it up frequently even with a great situation being served up to you on a silver platter. Once a President Perry or Romney is in office, the winds will shift hard. There is nothing to gloat about here. NY-26 was different because it proved that the Paul Ryan plan was as popular as child molestation and demolished any idea of Republicans triumphantly running on it. There was a clear effect on policy because of it. NY-9 will have no such blowback. I do hope that it makes Democratic strategists wake up and pay close attention to the white working class.

[Sam Spade]

I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

[Wonkish1]

I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

[Torie]

I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

Is he an ahole?