The last four options given are simply not realistic in my book (less than 0.0001%, maybe).
Right now, the most likely of the options to me is "Severe Recession", which would be more like Great Depression 2, and would bottom out at more like 3600 in the DOW, with 20% unemployment. I give this option about 40% chance or so.
AS always, I would hope for the "Bad Recession" option, except this means more like 4500 on the DOW, with 15% unemployment. It should probably be termed a depression, and would be. I would give this option about 25% chance of occurring.
Btw, the "Very Bad Depression" is clearly a depression worse than the Great Depression and would bottom out around 1987 crash levels (i.e. 2000 in the DOW), 25-30% unemployment - a whole host of S&P 500 companies go bye-bye (which will also happen in the "Severe Recession" scenario - just not the same amount). You need to include the fact that this type of depression has, I figure, about a 1 in 3 chance of taking out our form of government permanently (the others are, of course, much lower). The odds of this one occurring have risen a lot of late to me - I put it at about 30% (note - higher than the good scenario).
The Worst Depression ever scenario more likely than not results in our form of government changing permanently. It cannot be discounted, given present actions - even though I would have, in the past, put it at the level of kookdom. I must give it a 5% chance now.
Spade, should this 'doomsday' scenario occur, what form will this new government take?
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