Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[countydurhamboy]

Nobody wanted these elections and the government couldn't have handled them worse. However since  we had to have them, why didn't the government allow them to take place with the locals? How many people are going to vote on a dark, cold November Night?

 I think Labour will have a very good night but with the turnout so low maybe the likes of UKIP have a chance?

[countydurhamboy]

I do wonder vaguely about some of the West Country police authorities: a lot of people who are basically conservative but like to cast protest votes against London and who's traditional choice of protest party is now part of the government.

Yep, and since Labour basically don't exist in the West County, I doubt they will get many protest votes. The votes will have to go somewhere and since the public are on the whole right wing about crime, UKIP have a shot.

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Thanks

[countydurhamboy]

Right, I don't know If you can draw any meaningful conclusions from an election with a 15% turnout but I will try.
 
1. Can't escape the turnout question; I agree with the poster who called it an omnishambles. The public clearly don't want police commissioners, Still I fear these posts are here to stay.

2. The labour performance was surprisingly average, I thought they would have taken a few more northern areas, I'm looking at you Humberside. I doubt it matters though, Corby matters far more. 

3. The Tories also had a bad day but a few surprising wins in places like staffs saved them from humiliation . The south east was an epic disaster. They lost Surrey, Kent, Hampshire, Lincolnshire, Dorset and West Mercia. These were Tory bastions even in 1945 and 1997, Kent even held out in 1906. Gone!

4. It was really the night of the independent. I dont much like independents, however most of the ones elected seem okay. I have a feeling the guy in Surrey may prove interesting.

5. Ukip did well, However the didn't win or come close to winning. Until they do they will never be more than a temporary home for disaffected tories. 

6. Last and definitely least its the Lib Dems. Well At least they held their deposits! Im guessing they were ahead in South Lakeland but did they win anywhere else? I would quite like to know ?
For the Lib dems, I think this result just about sums it up.

Northumberland         Labour  40.9
                                     Lib Dem 8.0 !!
                                     UKIP      10.3
                                     Tory       40.3

Just awful for them! The Tories outpolled them in Newcastle aswell!

[countydurhamboy]

Presumably no one in Berwick voted?

It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.

[countydurhamboy]

Presumably no one in Berwick voted?

It looks like the few who did, voted for the Tory. I know there was only a 16.5% turnout so the PCC election result is near worthless but come 2015 I can see a rare Tory gain there.

Berwick will be one of the "Our losses have been offset by gains from the Libs" seats for the Tories in 2015.

In terms of number of seats won, I actually think the Libs will do much better than we all think. They always do.

[countydurhamboy]

Durham result...

Labour    51.56%
Independent    26.83%
UKIP    11.77%
Conservative    9.84%

The reason for the pathetic Tory result was they struggled to get a candidate, so had to run a 22 year old. The Labour candidate was also very strong.  In both Northumbria and Cleveland  the Tories got 26%.