RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread

[NOVA Green]

Washington (yellow = Johnson, purple = write-ins)

So those little slivers of red I see in SW WA appear to be some solid numbers in the city of Vancouver, a core in Longview WA, and maybe a few precincts stretching out along the Long Beach peninsula?

Can't zoom in on the map, that's what my naked eyes appear to see...

[NOVA Green]

Oregon:


Bonus Oregon Senate race:


Comparison (Trump did better than Callahan where blue, Clinton beat Wyden where red/pink):

Awesome RI---- you are the best of 2016 when it comes to precinct level mapping, as well as many other contributions to the Forum over recent years!

Question: Is where the frack were you able to not only pull detailed precinct level returns for all counties in Oregon, but additionally be able to translate that into precinct level maps?

Totally amazing, and feel free to send me a personal IM, since not only is data almost impossible to find, but the conversion to a mapping file format, where it is virtually impossible to find precinct maps let alone to convert to a visual format.... wishing I were able to reproduce this for the entire state, instead of having to wade through county by county....

Haven't had a chance to review the map in detail, Holiday Season and all that, but totally looking forward with more detailed review.   

[NOVA Green]

http://i.imgur.com/k5DYXiU.png In the Portland area, Hillary's victories were mostly in the precincts within Portland's urban growth boundary (UGB) [in green]. Trump mostly won precincts directly outside the UGB.

Access to view the webpage denied error message....

Not sure if it's just my PC or if anyone else is having the same issue with what appears to be an access/permissions gig.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon:

Is Lake County a single precinct?

No there are actually more like 19 precincts in Lake County, although most are extremely small in population.... Also Lincoln County on the Central Coast has multiple precincts, but for whatever reason wasn't converted into precinct level numbers on the map.

[NOVA Green]

The swing map of Cali is particularly interesting....

Looking at the Bay Area, you see some of the largest swings towards the Democrats in relatively wealthy areas in the East Bay, like Walnut Creek/Concord rolling all the way down to parts of South Bay especially the NW parts of Santa Clara County, and then all the way up the Peninsula.

Meanwhile you have a trend towards the Republicans in some of the most working-class parts of the region, including some heavier African-American communities in places like East Oakland and Hunters Point are of SF....

Even looking at LA County, there is that major light blue gap in the Middle running through historic Watts/ "South Central" all the way into Northern Long Beach that jumps out as well.

Shift over to the wealthy Coastal communities all the way from halfway through Orange County to Malibu, there are huge swings towards Clinton, not even going into some of the wealthier communities in the Canyons of OC and LA counties....

What is going on with that sea of dark blue in the Middle of Orange County???

Hurts my eyes just looking at it, and don't quite understand the context in that part of the County...

[NOVA Green]

How tf do you make these

RI has been doing this since at least 2012, and Alcon was involved in a similar project back in '08....

I think it's a mix of being able to pull Shapefiles/GiS data combined with county level precinct data available....

My question is a bit less on the tech side of how to create these awesome maps, but rather where the heck some of these county level precinct results are pulled from, since in many cases, it requires a significant amount of expenditure to obtain raw precinct level data, and quite possibly expenditures to obtain county precinct maps where the database info can be tied into the mapping format....

I would love to be able to generate these types of maps, but I suspect that this data is not cheap to procure, even if one had the skills/training/experience to convert....

Maybe I'm totally off-base here, but I definitely appreciate the awesome goodness that comes from the labor, time, and expense to generate these!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Hey--- RI if you're taking request for swing maps mind running the Oregon '12 to '16 Presidential swing map?

[NOVA Green]

Dem precincts in Siskiyou are Mt Shasta and Dunsmuir, and Weed....

The map makes it look crazier because of the smaller rural areas, where Clinton was effectively slaughtered.... Not too much of a Native American pop, unless possibly that precinct on the Western part of the county bordering Del Norte/Humboldt.... could just as easily be an White counterculture precinct in the hills of the Coast Range, or a mix of both....

I'll let others speak to Inyo and the Sierra Mountain counties....

[NOVA Green]

Wow--- thanks for pulling this together in one of the toughest states in the Union to pull precinct level data from and incorporate into a visual map based format!

It would be extremely interesting to see the '08 Pres GE number for Indiana and the '08 > '16 swings, but this is data this is likely virtually impossible to obtain, unless someone like yourself or Alcon generated a map back in '08 to give us an idea...

Regardless, swing patterns appear eerily familiar.... Huge swings towards Trump in heavily rural & small town areas, and some decent swings towards Clinton in the relatively upscale areas around suburban Indianapolis (With many fewer voters than small town America).

[NOVA Green]

It would be extremely interesting to see the '08 Pres GE number for Indiana and the '08 > '16 swings, but this is data this is likely virtually impossible to obtain, unless someone like yourself or Alcon generated a map back in '08 to give us an idea...

2008 data is actually some of the easiest to get. All I can say is to have a bit of patience... Good things are coming.

You are the best!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Colorado swing map:


I'm seeing a trend in a lot of these western swing maps: the areas swinging toward Hillary tend to be more white while the areas that are more Hispanic tend to be swinging toward Trump. Not that it proves anything, but still.

It's also interesting to note that some of the areas with the largest swings towards Clinton were relatively wealthier places...

For example--- if we look at the Denver suburbs of Douglas County, you see significant swings in places with pretty high median household incomes....

El Paso County (Colorado Springs area) you see significant swings towards Clinton in the relatively affluent North Central part of the County, and to some extent in the hills West of Colorado Springs.... Meanwhile in the lower income precincts within the City, you have a significant swing towards Trump.

[NOVA Green]

It's also interesting to note that some of the areas with the largest swings towards Clinton were relatively wealthier places...

That seems to be a pattern nationwide.

Yup... and there is whole discussion on this thread about that very phenomenon.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0

Since I have been involved in pulling some numbers for various places, RI's awesome precinct swing map caused me to take a peek at a few locations in Colorado to see if the patterns match.

[NOVA Green]

Sadly, it looks like the great unveiling has been bumped to tomorrow. Not my decision. Sorry.

Way to keep us in suspense....

Looking forward to the final product, as with all of your awesome projects.... 

[NOVA Green]

This is exquisite.... a veritable work of art (As well as well a major contribution to the body of knowledge that lends greater ease towards interpretations of election data).

[NOVA Green]

This is fascinating stuff, being able to graphically look at the data at a national level, and the swing map in particular both reinforces and simultaneously challenges some aspects of the CW about the 2016 GE...

1.) So, for starters although it is pretty clear that there was a significant overall swing towards the Republican candidate in rural heavily White precincts nationally, as well in in small towns and cities, this phenomenon was by no means universal, particularly in the Western United States, the Southern Part of the Great Plains, the Hill Country of Texas, Parts of Cajun Country in Lousiana

2.) The map clearly demonstrates the overall massive swing towards the Republican candidate in the "Corn Belt" and "Grain Belt" of the Upper and Northern Midwest in many precincts that are properly classified as "rural America", and all the way through huge swathes of Pennsylvania and Upstate New York.


3.) One other interesting item that the map graphically details is the extent of the voting swings between Metro areas and rural areas and smaller towns/cities.

Granted, it is necessary to zoom into the highest level detail and scroll gradually through the United States to see how extensive those swings overall were in almost all large Metro areas, regardless of the Anglo/Minority Population statistics....

Sure, we have an idea from other research that in general many of the highest income areas, even in heavily Republican places swung for towards the Democratic candidate by 15-20% margins.

However, obviously the vast majority of Metro area residents do not fall into the "upper middle class" category...

There are a ton of Metro areas we have talked about on Atlas regarding the Democratic swings, obviously Phoenix and Metro Atlanta spring immediately to mind, as well as some talk about places like Columbus, Ohio, OC California, NoVA, some Metro areas in Texasand a few other places as well.

But, look at Metro Saint Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis- St-Paul, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Columbia, Charleston, Charlotte, Richmond, Louisville, Cincinnati, Kalamazoo, etc... Not to even mention traditionally solidly Democratic bastions in the West Coasts, and Boston.

These areas all swung towards the Democratic Nominee in 2016, in many cases by significant numbers.

It will be interesting to observe if the 2016 trends continue further into 2020, or if this election was just a one time anomaly...

[NOVA Green]

GG. Congrats. Look below
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/apr/10/washington-state-graduate-designs-map-showing-prec/

If this is our local home town guru--- RI much and well deserved kudos from beyond the Atlas Underground into the mainstreaming world of academia and potential private sector employment if those are your wishes in the future...   

I do have to say that these precinct level national maps are the best value ever, and the amount of labor and detail involved in producing these is simply mind blowing---- and Alcon who doesn't chill very often on the Forum anymore was one of the best when it came to maps and precinct level data.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon.... (of course)